Despite a recent spate of bad economicnews, the latest unemployment rate for South Africa has actually declined. TheLabor Force Survey reports a drop from 23.2 percent in the third quarter of2008 to 21.9 percent in the fourth quarter. The improvement is largely due toan increase in construction industry jobs.
VOAreporter Delia Robertson, in Johannesburg, says, "Itseems to have been a surprise. And I think not a surprise that the rate hascome down, but to the extent to which it apparently has come down and thetiming, given the current economic climate. South Africa's GDP (Gross DomesticProduct) decreased for the first time in over a decade in the last quarter of2008. And so I think a lot of people were expecting the jobless rate toincrease rather than decrease," she says.
With the April national electionsapproaching, is this good news for the ruling ANC party and bad news foropposition parties? Robertson says, "I'm not sure that the impact will be thatgreat. I'm sure the parties will try and make use of these statistics. But fora lot of people whose lives haven't changed under ANC rule, these statisticsare pretty meaningless. And there is a fair amount of resentment toward the ANCbecause of the slow pace of change. Although, I suppose if one was going to becompletely fair, you could say that in 15 years the ANC has done quite a lot.But one thing they haven't done?is reduce unemployment at the rate people wouldlike to see it reduced."
Askedwhether the improvement is due to construction jobs related to building for the2010 World Cup, the VOA reporter says, "What we might be seeing is?one of theeffects of job creation reaching a critical mass, where creation of jobs isvery, very slow and very, very incremental and then all of a sudden it startspicking up. I don't think it's directly related to 2010 construction becausemost of 2010 construction is nearing its end already. Most of the stadia willbe completed in the coming months?. That, I think, has already been factoredin."
Robertson says, however, that therecould be another downturn in the jobless rate. "Up until certainly the end oflast year, the construction industry has been busier just because of aconsequence of this very slow and incremental build-up in the economy. And itstarted to make an effect. Given the current economic circumstances, though,and the downturn in the global economy and the downturn in South Africa'seconomy?what we might see is a reversion to an increase in jobless numbers."