A non-binding independence referendum was held in Bougainville, an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea, between 23 November and 7 December 2019. The referendum question was a choice between greater autonomy within Papua New Guinea and full independence; voters voted overwhelmingly (98.31%) for independence.
The referendum was a result of a 2001 agreement between the government of Papua New Guinea and the Autonomous Bougainville Government that ended a civil war fought from 1988 to 1998. The vote is non-binding and the government of Papua New Guinea has the final authority of decision on the political status of Bougainville. Observers have said that the clear result makes it difficult for Papua New Guinea to ignore or delay the result, but that independence could take years to achieve.
In July 2021, an agreement was reached between the governments of Papua New Guinea and Bougainville, in which Bougainville will gain independence by 2027 if it is ratified by Papua New Guinea's parliament.
Background
Discussions about an independent Bougainville had been held as early as 1968. Following a meeting in Port Moresby between the two Bougainville MHAs (Paul Lapun and Donatus Mola) and around 25 Bougainvilleans, a proposal was put forward in the House of Assembly to hold a referendum to decide whether the island should remain part of Papua New Guinea, join the Solomon Islands, or become independent. However, no vote was held. After Papua New Guinea became independent from Australia in 1975, Bougainville was given provincial status in 1976.
In 1988 tensions erupted into a civil war between the Bougainville Revolutionary Army and Papua New Guinea government forces. One key issue was the Panguna mine, which closed in 1989. The civil war ended with a ceasefire in 1998, followed with the 2001 Bougainville Peace Agreement. The agreement established the Autonomous Bougainville Government, and mandated a referendum on the independence of Bougainville to be held 10–15 years after the election of the first Autonomous Bougainville Government, which was slated to be June 2020 at the latest. The referendum would be non-binding, and the final decision would rest with the Papua New Guinean government.
In November 2019 Raymond Masono, Vice-President of the Autonomous Region of Bougainville, campaigned that he would plan to reopen the Panguna mine if the referendum resulted in a vote for independence. Panguna had closed in 1989 due to the civil war and is now estimated to hold copper worth up to $60 billion. With independence, all of Papua New Guinea's interests in the mine would transfer to Bougainville, giving it a 60% share in all projects and retaining all mining licences. The remaining 40% would be left for investors to bid on.
Planning
The vote was originally scheduled for 15 June 2019, but was delayed to 17 October amid allegations that the national government was slow to provide most of the promised funding for the referendum. The referendum was delayed again to 23 November at the request of the Bougainville Referendum Commission to ensure the credibility of the referendum roll so more people can vote. Both governments said this delay would be the last. Voting was planned to take place over two weeks, from 23 November to 7 December.
The vote faced a high degree of difficulty to organise, with most of the population in small hamlets and villages, and about half the population being illiterate.
In October 2018 former Taoiseach of Ireland Bertie Ahern was appointed to chair the Bougainville Referendum Commission, which was responsible for preparing the referendum.
Voters
In November, the BRC completed the official "certified voter list" to be used in polling for the referendum. The final number of eligible voters was 206,731, out of a total population of nearly 300,000. Males undergoing the upe rite of passage were allowed to vote at special male-only polling stations. Bougainvilleans living in other parts of Papua New Guinea, or in Australia and Solomon Islands, were also allowed to vote.
Question
The question put to voters was:
Results
The results of the referendum were announced on 11 December. Over 98% of valid ballots were cast in favor of independence. Prior to the election, it was widely expected that the independence option would win, with The Guardian reporting an estimate of 90% in favor of independence.
An official reported that the referendum went "better than we expected," and that voters were enthusiastic, while observers from Divine Word University said that the voting took place in an atmosphere of celebration.