Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems (POLES) is a world simulation model for the energy sector that runs on the Vensim software. It is a techno-economic model with endogenous projection of energy prices, a complete accounting of energy demand and supply of numerous energy vectors and associated technologies, and a carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emissions module.
History
POLES was initially developed in the early 1990s in the Institute of Energy Policy and Economics IEPE (now EDDEN-CNRS) in Grenoble, France. It was conceived on the basis of research issues related to global energy supply and climate change and the long-term impact of energy policies. It was initially developed through a detailed description of sectoral energy demand, electricity capacity planning and fossil fuel exploration and production in the different world regions. Along its development it incorporated theoretical and practical expertise in many fields such as mathematics, economics, engineering, energy analysis, international trade and technical change.
The initial development of POLES was financed by the JOULE II and III programmes of the European Commission’s Third and Fourth Framework Programmes (FP) for Research and Technological Development (1990-1994 and 1994-1998) as well as by the French CNRS. Since then, the model has been developed extensively through several projects, some partly financed by FP5, FP6 and FP7, and in collaboration between the EDDEN-CNRS, the consulting company Enerdata and the European Joint Research Centre IPTS.
With a history spanning twenty years, it is one of the few energy models worldwide that benefits from a continuous development process and expertise over such an extended time period.
Structure
The model provides a complete system for the simulation and economic analysis of the world’s energy sector up to 2050. POLES is a partial equilibrium model with a yearly recursive simulation process with a combination of price-induced behavioural equations and a cost- and performance-based system for a large number of energy or energy-related technologies. Contrary to several other energy sector models, international energy prices are endogenous. The main exogenous variables are the gross domestic product and population for each country or region.
The model’s structure corresponds to a system of interconnected modules and articulates three levels of analysis: international energy markets, regional energy balances, and national energy demand (which includes new technologies, electricity production, primary energy production systems and sectoral greenhouse gas emissions).
POLES breaks down the world into 66 regions, of which 54 correspond to countries (including the 28 countries of the European Union) and 12 correspond to countries aggregates; for each of these regions, a full energy balance is modelled. The model covers 15 energy demand sectors in each region.
Demand sectors
Each demand sector is described with a high degree of detail, including activity indicators, short- and long-term energy prices and associated elasticities and technological evolution trends (thus including the dynamic cumulative processes associated with technological learning curves). This allows a strong economic consistency in the adjustment of supply and demand by region, as relative price changes at a sectoral level impact all key component of a region’s sector. Sectoral value added is simulated.
Energy demand for each fuel in a sector follows a market share-based competition driven by energy prices and factors related to policy or development assumptions.
The model is composed of the following demand sectors:
Residential and Tertiary: two sectors. Industry: Energy uses in industry: four sectors, allowing for a detailed modelling of such energy-intensive industries such as the steel industry, the chemicals industry and the non-metallic minerals industry (cement, glass). Non-energy uses in industry: two sectors, for the transformation sectors such as plastics production and chemical feedstock production. Transport: four sectors (air, rail, road and other). Road transport modelling comprises several vehicle types (passenger cars, merchandise heavy trucks) and allows the study of inter-technology competition with the penetration of alternative vehicles (hybrids, electric or fuel cell vehicles). International bunkers: two sectors. Agriculture: one sector.