The affordability of housing in the UK reflects the ability to rent or buy property. There are various ways to determine or estimate housing affordability. One commonly used metric is the median housing affordability ratio; this compares the median price paid for residential property to the median gross annual earnings for full-time workers. According to official government statistics, housing affordability worsened between 2020 and 2021, and since 1997 housing affordability has worsened overall, especially in London. The most affordable local authorities in 2021 were in the North West, Wales, Yorkshire and The Humber, West Midlands and North East.
Housing tenure in the UK has the following main types: Owner-occupied, private rented sector (PRS), and social rented sector (SRS). The affordability of housing in the UK varies widely on a regional basis – house prices and rents will differ as a result of market factors such as the state of the local economy, transport links, and the supply of housing.
Key determinants of affordability
For owner-occupied properties, key determinants of affordability are house prices, income, interest rates, and purchase costs. For rented property, PRS rents will largely be a reflection of house prices, while SRS rents are set by Local Authorities, Housing Associations or similar.
House prices
Land Registry figures for England and Wales show that housing prices rose from £70,000 to £224,000 in the 20 years between 1998 and 2018. Growth was almost continuous during the period, save for two years of decline around 2008 as a result of the banking crisis.
House price averages compared to average salary
The gap between average income and average housing prices changed between 1985 and 2015 from twice an average salary to up to six times average income. Median house prices in London the median house now cost up to 12 times the median London salary. In 1995, the median house price was £83,000, 4.4 times the median income. By 2012–13, the median income in London had increased to £24,600 and the median London house price had increased to £300,000, 12.2 times median income
In 1995, the Bank base rate was 6%, in March 2009 it stood at 0.5% until August 2016 when it was further reduced to 0.25%.
Effect of planning restrictions on house prices
An analysis by the LSE and the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis found that house prices in England would have been 35% cheaper without regulatory constraints. A report by the Adam Smith Institute found that by using 4% of London's green belt, one million homes could be built within a 10-minute walk of a railway station.
The Economist has criticised green belt policy, saying that unless more houses are built through reforming planning laws and releasing green belt land, then housing space will need to be rationed out. It noted that if general inflation had risen as fast as housing prices had since 1971, a chicken would cost £51; and that Britain is "building less homes today than at any point since the 1920s". According to the independent Institute of Economic Affairs, there is "overwhelming empirical evidence that planning restrictions have a substantial impact on housing costs" and are the main reason why housing was two and a half times more expensive in 2011 than it was in 1975.
The Campaign to Protect Rural England argued that "Green Belt land is important for our wider environment, providing us with the trees and the undeveloped land which reduce the effect of the heat generated by big cities. Instead of reducing this green space, we should be using it to its best effect. We know from our research that three-quarters (79%) of the population would like to see more trees planted and more food grown in the areas around towns and cities."
Valuation of land and effect on house prices
Property companies state that land values follow house prices and that a developer assesses what new build house price is achievable in any particular location with reference to prices and sales rates in the second-hand market and on nearby comparable new build sites. At a basic level (assuming no affordable housing, S106 or CIL), they then multiply that new build house price by the number of homes to be built on the land and to arrive at the gross development value (GDV) of the site. The underlying value of the land is then the GDV less the cost of development and less an allowance for profit.