"It is more than probable that both sides will soon become exhausted in a localised war; the only question is, which of the two will give in first. Russia's eyes will always be fixed on her own interests, never on those of Roumania; and, since there is no such thing as gratitude in politics, I recommend you to exercise the utmost caution.
"Europe will not interest itself in a defeated and fallen Roumania--it will only have regard for a free country which is not tied down by treaties. Prudence and moderation are therefore necessary at so critical a period, which will either prove to be a wholesome era of transition for your country, or will bear the seeds of its annihilation."
The efforts of the Russian diplomats in Constantinople now appeared to be confined to delaying the advance of the Russian army until a more favourable season of the year should have arrived. Prince Charles Anthony thus sketched the possible results of the coming war in a letter to his son dated March 1, 1877:
"Russia will hardly gain great triumphs--a few military successes may be achieved, but certainly none of any political importance. The army and the Slav element must content themselves with a small modicum of glory, whilst the Czar Alexander may think himself lucky in returning to peaceful and normal circumstances, and in having mastered a movement which is of the greatest danger to Russia. The only tangible result of the whole Russian initiative will, perhaps, be that the suzerainty of the Porte over Roumania is transferred to Russia.
"Roumania would thereby be supported by a stronger and more stable Power, with, perhaps, more freedom at home and abroad, but would certainly not achieve her longed-for recognition as an independent and equal State.
"The forms of the suzerainty would perhaps be more equable and more pleasant, but the dependence, though tolerable, would always be felt.
"This would merely be an exchange of _rôles_. Europe would then admire Russia's moderation, and would doubtless concede every demand made along the lines I have suggested. The sacrifice of Roumania would thus be a message of peace, on which would hinge the return to the universal _entente_."
A final attempt to settle the Eastern Question by means of the London Protocol met with as little success as the efforts of the Conference; and the Russo-Roumanian Convention was signed on April 16, 1877, by Baron Stuart on behalf of the Czar, and M. Cogalniceanu on behalf of Prince Charles. The following were the chief articles of the Convention: