washington —
The rapid breakdown of a Beijing-mediated cease-fire in northern Myanmar has exposed the limits of Chinese influence in the region, even as it seeks to turn recent military gains by a rebel alliance to its advantage.
The "Haigeng agreement," announced January 12, was less than a day old when witnesses reported widespread gunfire in northern Shan state, bordering China.
The rebel Three Brotherhood Alliance — comprising the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army or MNDAA, the Arakan Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army — released a statement the day after the talks, accusing the military of launching attacks at multiple locations.
The largest took place near Kyaukme, a small but bustling town along the Mandalay-Lashio Road in a mountainous area near China's southwestern border. The area has long been a trade route between the two countries and has seen significant infrastructure investment by China in recent years.
A humanitarian assistance worker in Kyaukme, speaking anonymously for security reasons, told VOA this week that he could hear the hourslong gunbattle the morning after the cease-fire. "It was a shootout in Kyaukme," he said. "Civilians started fleeing for safety as the attacks were coming from both sides of town."
An updated statement from the alliance nearly a week later described continuing attacks by the Myanmar military, including 16 airstrikes on villages in northern Shan state. Witnesses on the ground have confirmed the use of airstrikes to VOA by phone.
The alliance statement blamed the military for the failure of the cease-fire, which grew out of the third attempt at dialogue since December, largely with China as mediator.
"From the day the 'Haigeng agreement' was reached until today, our side has been in compliance," the statement read. "We have been patient and showed restraint by not engaging in battle. Otherwise, we would have already implemented operational targets and city-occupation battles that had been planned before the cease-fire."
The reports of cease-fire violations belied remarks made earlier by junta spokesperson Major General Zaw Min Tun.
"We have plans to further discuss and strengthen the cease-fire agreement," he said immediately after last week's announcement. "We will engage in further discussions between Myanmar and China to reopen border trade zones."
VOA has been unable to reach the junta spokesperson's office for a response to the alliance statement. As of Friday, there had been no official statement from the junta regarding the latest developments.
According to Than Soe Naing, a China-Myanmar expert and former member of the Communist Party of Burma, Beijing's primary interest in peace talks lies in its desire to reopen trade routes between Myanmar and China's Yunnan state.
"The Chinese perspective suggests that dealing with cities on the trade route between China and inland cities like Mandalay, such as the town of Lashio, with a similar approach as the one taken with the Laukkai matter, could potentially open up the trade route," Naing said. However, he added, "whether the military junta will accept such intervention is doubtful. If Lashio is filled with military forces, there will certainly be fierce battles."
Laukkai, a border town that is infamous for gambling, prostitution and cybercrime, was captured by the Three Brotherhood Alliance on January 5 as part of a successful offensive begun in October and known as the "1027" operation. The alliance established a special regional self-government in the town this week.
"China would also encourage this kind of development in Lashio," Naing suggested. Lashio is the largest town in northern Shan state and lies at what was once the end of the "Burma road," a historically significant thoroughfare connecting Lashio to southeast China's Yunnan state. It is also the site of a large military base, which is thought to be one of the alliance's next targets.
"The main reason [the Three Brotherhood Alliance] agreed to the cease-fire was their hope to come to some sort of compromise on Lashio's capture," Naing said. "A forceful occupation of Lashio would lead to extensive fighting and turmoil in the region; a military withdrawal would avoid that."
Jason Tower, the country director for the Myanmar program at the U.S. Institute of Peace, told VOA he believed China was looking for a compromise in which the junta would concede some territory in the north while the alliance would roll back some of its war aims.