The Myanmar civil war (), also called the Myanmar Spring Revolution, and the People's Defensive War, is an ongoing civil war following Myanmar's long-running insurgencies which escalated significantly in response to the 2021 military coup d'état and the subsequent violent crackdown on anti-coup protests.
In the months following the coup, the opposition began to coalesce around the National Unity Government, which launched an offensive against the junta. By 2022, the opposition controlled substantial, though sparsely populated, territory. In many villages and towns, the junta's attacks drove out tens of thousands of people. On the second anniversary of the coup, in February 2023, the chairman of the State Administration Council, Min Aung Hlaing, admitted to losing stable control over "more than a third" of townships. Independent observers note the real number is likely far higher, with as few as 72 out of 330 townships remaining under Tatmadaw control, though these include all major population centres.
As of September 2022, 1.3 million people have been internally displaced, and over 13,000 children have been killed. By March 2023, the UN estimated that since the coup, 17.6 million people in Myanmar required humanitarian assistance, while 1.6 million were internally displaced, and 55,000 civilian buildings had been destroyed. UNOCHA said that over 40,000 people fled into neighboring countries.
In October 2023, Burmese media outlets began reporting that the lower ranks of the Tatmadaw were beginning to empty, with desertions and low morale being extremely common. It has also been reported that the Tatmadaw now controls under 40% of the country.
Background
On the morning of 1 February 2021, the Myanmar military, or Tatmadaw, successfully deposed the elected Myanmar government in a coup, forming a military junta. Former president Win Myint, Aung San Suu Kyi, and several other members of the National League for Democracy were detained during early morning raids and Min Aung Hlaing was placed as the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services and de facto ruler of the nation.
The exact motives behind the coup are unclear. In the leadup to the coup, the Tatmadaw claimed that the 2020 general elections had 8.6 million voter irregularities, but presented no evidence. The coup may have been a way to re-establish the military's long-reigning power over the country which ended ten years prior.
The bloody repression of anti-coup demonstrations led to the creation of armed groups to fight the State Administration Council, the military junta. Gathered under the name of the People's Defence Force (PDF) and the orders of the National Unity Government (NUG), formed by former parliamentarians in office before the coup d'état, the PDF and the NUG officially declared a "defensive war" against the military regime in September 2021. The ACLED estimated that as of 29 July 2022, around 23,521 people in total had been killed in the violence following the 2021 coup.
Existing conflict
Insurgencies have been ongoing in Myanmar since 1948 and have largely been ethnic-based. Communist insurgencies and the Karen National Union were the primary opposition actors to the central government. Over the 20th century, several prominent ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) rose and fell in influence and control. Larger rebel factions such as the Kachin Independence Army formed in response to Ne Win's 1962 Burmese coup d'état and its increased political repression. The 8888 Uprising in response to the totalitarian rule of Ne Win resulted in some of the first modern Bamar militias forming from protestors heading to areas under ethnic rebel control.
In the aftermath of the 8888 Uprising, the State Law and Order Restoration Council, later called the State Peace and Development Council, formed a military junta. The Tatmadaw severely weakened ethnic insurgent groups, destroying most of their bases and strongholds through the 1990s. By the time of the 2011–2015 Myanmar political reforms, the junta had regained control of many long-time rebel strongholds including Kokang and Karen State.