GAZIANTEP, TURKEY - Syrian rebel commander Abu Ali Sijjo has for months fought Islamic State, liberating a village along the border from the terror group, while at the same time battling Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.
Two months ago IS targeted the rebel commander in a car bombing — he has a shattered shoulder and limited use of his right-arm. But as mainly moderate and Islamic nationalist rebel militias -- some backed by the U.S. -- are faced with an unrelenting Assad ground offensive, pulverizing round-the-clock Russian airstrikes and Kurdish attacks in northern Syria, even this rebel commander is questioning where his future allegiances may lie.
Most rebel fighters and commanders are debating with themselves and each other about what they should do, how they should re-group and who they should align with in defense of what is left of the dwindling territory they are clinging onto in the Aleppo countryside.
Some fighters have left the battlefield — not from a lack of valor but in anger at what they see as Western passivity — some say betrayal — or in disgust with their commanders who still squabble among themselves.
Others are pondering whether to join al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra or even Islamic State — not out of theological reasons but to be able to continue to fight Assad.
The picture is changing by the hour in the northern Aleppo in what one rebel commander told VOA is the “make-or-break moment of the Syrian revolution.”
Here’s a look at the "who, what, where and why" of the current situation on the ground in northern Syria and what it might portend for U.S. policy and the fate of the Syrian revolution.
The Syrian revolution has been marked by the fractiousness of its armed groups and political factions. In the face of impeding doom, deep divisions and disagreements remain. The former chief of staff of the Western-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA), General Salem Idris, recently expressed his frustration to VOA about the bickering that erupted during an emergency meeting between militia commanders in the northern Aleppo countryside. “They may lose everything but they still think about personal interests,” he fumed.
Over the past five years many attempts have been made to achieve some unity of purpose and alliances have come and gone with dizzying speed. As towns and villages have fallen the past week — some to the Assad regime, others to fighters with the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces —disputes have continued to flare, including over decisions about whether to retreat, surrender or withdraw.
In the town of Mare’ midweek some factions wanted to surrender; others refused to do so.
On Monday, eight prominent Aleppo rebel groups agreed to unite for operational purposes under the tactical leadership of Hashim al Sheikh, a former member and ally of Ahrar al-Sham, the hard-line Islamist militia which is aligned with al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. Although this is not a full merger with Ahrar al-Sham, it will strengthen the Islamist group, and will likely better position it to absorb later other militias, fear analysts.
Syrian President Assad has always argued that his opponents are terrorists — including political foes not even in armed groups. And that has been the constant refrain of Moscow. Since the Assad offensive started more than a week ago, that line has been echoed by the leaders of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD). Its leader Saleh Muslim declined to condemn the Russian airstrikes and Assad offensive in an interview with VOA, insisting that the Russians and regime forces were “just attacking terrorists, Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra.”
The commanders of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the armed wing of the PYD, insist the towns they have been overrunning this week are being grabbed from Ahrar al-Sham or al-Qaida fighters. But towns like Tell Rifaat were never in the hands of either Ahrar al-Sham or Jabhat al-Nusra, and fighters from al -Qaida’s Syria affiliate long ago vacated much of the northern Aleppo countryside, although in some areas they have returned since the offensive, especially in the city of Aleppo to fight alongside other rebel factions.
A rebel realignment that appears to be emerging that strengthens Salafi-Jihadist and hardline Islamist groups will be a self-fulfilling prophecy, argue many Syria watchers.
They say Moscow has been pursing a strategy it used in Chechnya: target the moderates and crush them, which in turn leaves only extremists remaining, allowing the regime to force people and foreign governments to choose between either the regime or the extremists with no moderate alternative.