He says while someanalysts are relatively surprised that the race question hasn?t featured to agreat degree so far in the presidential race, it?s clearly still a factor.
?Let?s not forget that inthe Democratic primaries, the overwhelming majority of African Americans votedfor Obama, while about two-thirds of the Hispanics voted for Hillary Clinton,and a large majority of whites did as well,? Sabato recalls.
Another close watcher of U.S. politics, from an Africanperspective, is the South African Broadcasting Corporation?s Washington bureauchief, Manelisi Dubase. He agrees that most racial messages put out by both theObama and McCain campaigns so far have been ?subliminal.?
But he?s also convinced that the ?politics of race,?which he says up until now have ?shadowed? this election campaign and havemainly been ?unspoken,? are set to become more apparent. He points to events afew weeks ago, when McCain accused Obama of ?playing politics with race.? Thiswas in response to the Democrat?s claim that Republicans were trying tofrighten voters away from him by saying that he ?doesn?t look like all thoseother presidents on the dollar bills.?
Dubase says, ?Up until this happened, thesubject of race was a hot potato, almost taboo, in this campaign. This was thefirst time that the skin color issue exploded into the open, and I think it?san indication of things to come. Things are going to get dirty, and there?snothing more dirty than racism or even suggestions thereof.?
But Sabato is of the opinion that the McCaincampaign is ?smart enough to know that if they overtly use race against BarackObama, it will backfire in probably a fatal way for McCain.?
He agrees, though, that the Republicans,including McCain support groups, may be tempted to use Obama?s race against himbut adds that the ?most important aspect? with regard to race in this campaignmay well only emerge on Election Day itself.
?The question that all pollsters and analystshave is this: Will there be racial leakage? Will you have a certain percentageof whites who have told pollsters in advance that they?re voting Democratic,who go into the polls, and, once they?re alone, end up voting for the whitecandidate because they just can?t pull the lever down for the African Americannominee Sabato asks.
The analyst says this has indeed happened insome races for governor and mayor all across the United States ?for decades? ?although to a lesser degree in recent years.
Sabato?s convinced that some whites will not beable to bring themselves to vote for Obama, simply because he?s black. He saysit?s ?anybody?s guess? as to what extent this happens, but says it couldultimately be the ?difference between victory and defeat.?
Sabato has a history of successfully predictingpolitical outcomes. In the 2004 U.S. campaign, he correctly predicted the fateof 525 of the 530 political races in the Electoral College. In 2006, hisforecast that the Democrats would win amajority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate was again spot-on.
?There?s no question about it; African Americansare going to give Barack Obama at least 95 per cent of their votes, in a largeturnout. Now, that could also generate a large white turnout?come November the4th,? says Sabato.
But Dubase says ?simple demographics? are thereason why Obama will not concentrate too much on the politics of race. Hepoints out that in 2004 about 15 million African Americans registered to vote,in contrast with about 140 million white Americans. African-Americans make up amere 13 per cent of the U.S. population of just over 300 million. Dubase saysin this context it makes ?far more sense? for Obama to try to gain the supportof the white majority than for him to emphasize the color of his skin andracial inequality in an attempt to ?curry favor with those he already has inhis pocket.?
However, Dubase also highlights the fact thatthe candidate who wins the popular vote in the United States doesn?t always winthe presidency, and the African American vote could prove key in swingingcertain states ? and possible victory in the election ? Obama?s way.
?The Obama camp is in a dilemma. They cannotafford to concentrate too much on race, because then they risk antagonizing oralienating whites. On the other hand, they cannot afford to ignore race,because they want a large African American turnout, especially in certainstates. So, it?s a delicate balancing act.?