HALIFAX, CANADA —
With the signing of a memorandum of understanding this month, the United States, Canada and Finland are moving ahead on what military analysts see as a belated but much-needed answer to a mounting Russian and Chinese threat in the Arctic Ocean.
Under the arrangement whimsically labeled the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort, or ICE Pact, the three nations have agreed to share research, knowledge and capabilities in building a still unspecified number of icebreakers capable of enforcing each nation's sovereignty in an ocean that has become increasingly navigable because of climate change.
While the retreat of the polar icecap is steadily opening the region for commercial traffic and mineral exploration, the ICE Pact is largely driven by concerns over the Arctic capabilities of an increasingly hostile Russia and the rapidly growing presence of China.
"Up until this past summer, you would expect one Chinese research vessel in the Arctic. This past summer, there were five," said U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Linda Fagan at a security forum in the Canadian city of Halifax this month.
"This summer they were operating in tandem surface action groups with both China and Russia, 60 to 70 miles off the coast of Alaska," Fagan added. "If we were to see that same pattern of behavior off the East or the West Coast of the [contiguous] United States, it would have the attention of the United States."
Speaking at the same forum, Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair said his country has been watching "the activities of two particular adversaries, China and Russia, in the area, which are deeply concerning to us and, frankly, their aggression and assertions in the region are somewhat different."
Blair said that in passages through the Arctic, the Russians "have not demonstrated respect to the international rules-based order and respect for other countries sovereignty and economic interests."
China, he said, approaches the Arctic in two ways, the first being significant investment in critical and other infrastructure.
"And the second one is through what they term scientific research. And we've seen a huge increase in their presence in the Arctic. And it's not just scientific research. They're mapping the sea floor. They're gathering intelligence," he said.
Experts say Russia is far ahead of the United States and its NATO allies in icebreaker capability, largely because it has for years been developing a commercial shipping route across its Arctic coast known as the Northern Sea Route. The route is of particular interest to China as a shortcut for its lucrative trade with Europe.
But Russian icebreaking is no longer limited to economic development, according to Heather Exner-Pirot, a global fellow at the Washington-based Wilson Center's Polar Institute.
"Its first armed combat icebreaker, the, is in sea trials and scheduled to join Russia's Northern Fleet by the end of 2024," in July.
"And China is quickly gaining capacity, having commissioned its fourth polar-capable vessel, the , last week," added Exner-Pirot, who is also the director of energy, natural resources and environment at the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
If the Western alliance hopes to match Russian and Chinese capabilities in the Arctic, it has a lot of catching up to do.
While precise counts vary according to how one defines a polar-capable icebreaker, the CIA World Factbook says Russia has 18 such vessels of varying classes, part of a that includes the world's only two nuclear-powered icebreakers. It has 11 more planned or under construction, according to a chart prepared by the U.S. Coast Guard Office of Waterways and Ocean Policy.
Canada ranks second in the world with 18 total icebreakers, according to the CIA World Factbook, but only one is suitable for polar missions. The others are mostly deployed to maintain commercial shipping channels through the St. Lawrence Seaway and the Great Lakes in winter. Canada has two more polar icebreakers under construction and another five planned.
Finland has at least eight polar-capable icebreakers, according to most assessments, and uses them mainly to clear ice around its Baltic Sea ports. It is also regarded as the world leader in the design and construction of icebreakers but has been unable to sell them to its main customer, Russia, since that country's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Its expertise will be critical to the ICE Pact program.