Next week, Zimbabwe will mark the 79th birthday of the country's president -- Robert Mugabe. But most observers note that few people will be celebrating.
Once a breadbasket of Africa, Zimbabwe now is on the verge of starvation. Severe drought has been compounded by what experts call a "man-made" famine brought on by forced land redistribution.
Annual inflation is running at about 150%. Unemployment exceeds 50%. And, the Zimbabwe dollar has virtually collapsed.
Robert Mugabe is routinely criticized in the West for harassing journalists, jailing opposition leaders and rigging elections -- particularly his own re-election last March.
Chester Crocker served as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs under President Ronald Reagan. Now a Professor of Strategic Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, Mr. Crocker says the crisis in Zimbabwe is "intolerable."
"It cannot just continue like this. The country is being trashed. The economy is being trashed. The human rights abuses are horrendous, the politicization of food distribution -- a number of things of that kind," he said. "They don't paint a pretty picture of the country. I think that we're going to see more and more reports of how bad it really is because I don't think the government can keep all what is going on in the dark."
There's near universal agreement among experts that Robert Mugabe's policies are destroying the economic and social fabric of the country. That leaves many analysts wondering: is the Mugabe regime coming to an end?
"It's important to note that Mugabe's rule in Zimbabwe is firm, but fragile," said Robert Lloyd, professor of International Relations and Director of the Center of International Studies and Languages at Pepperdine University in Los Angeles, California.
"The government is running out of resources. And so Mugabe's ability to buy-off people and to have those around him he can support through financial benefits are declining enormously," Mr. Lloyd said. "And when the calculations are made by his followers that, 'Hey, the party's over,' then I think there would be some rapid deal making going on."
But Professor Lloyd and other observers note that Robert Mugabe is keeping a close eye on supporters who might break ranks. And experts say it's unlikely that the country's military leaders will pressure Robert Mugabe to leave any time soon.
For now, the levers of power remain in Mr. Mugabe's hands. Analysts point out that the regime's ability to manipulate the availability of scarce commodities -- to allocate food to Mugabe supporters and to deny it to his opponents, for example -- is enabling the Zimbabwean leader to cling to power.
Experts warn that economic collapse, political repression, widespread famine and an AIDS epidemic that has infected as much as a third of the country -- make it increasingly difficult for people to rise-up against the regime.
International sanctions targeted against Robert Mugabe and his associates seem to be having little affect. And, according to Pepperdine University's Robert Lloyd, Zimbabwe's neighbors are reluctant to intervene.
"Among African states there has been a reluctance to criticize Mugabe and really put the pressure on him in order to create a regime change and for understandable reasons, Mr. Lloyd said. "They're feeling like he is one of their own. And even though many African states have a democratic system of government, there is still a reluctance to criticize another African leader."
"The international community really doesn't have much leverage," said Economist George Ayittey of American University in Washington.
"The United States will have to work through South Africa or the regional leaders. And so far, the U-S has been doing exactly that -- calling on the leaders of southern Africa to put pressure on Mugabe," Mr. Ayittey said. "Unfortunately, the actions of the leaders of southern Africa have been very, very disappointing because they have rallied behind Zimbabwe. And [in South Africa] Thabo Mbeki's response to the crisis in Zimbabwe has been very feeble. We don't see any action on the ground."
So how might change come to Zimbabwe? Spontaneous demonstrations culminating in a palace coup or perhaps Robert Mugabe stepping down and going into exile? Analysts can only speculate.
"The question comes then in looking at a post-Mugabe regime: How much of the past do you continue?," Mr. Lloyd said. "What policies did he make and how much of the old government do your keep in?"
According to Robert Lloyd, Zimbabweans will have to weigh the possibilities of justice and peace to prosecute those responsible for the country's collapse or simply rebuild.