Screenshot from YouTube channel of popular Taiwanese news channel 中時新聞網 , reading 俄烏戰爭情勢猛烈,相關消息引發台灣人恐慌 (The Russian-Ukrainian war is fierce, related news caused panic among Taiwanese) Despite the geographic distance between Taiwan and Ukraine, many Taiwanese anxiously follow Russia’s invasion as they project their own fears about a possible Chinese invasion of their island. There are several political and historical parallels that explain why the Taiwanese pay special attention not just to the events on the ground in Ukraine but perhaps even more to the reactions of other governments. Taiwan, a country of 23 million people, shares the same language and cultural heritage as the People’s Republic of China, and yet is under constant military threat from a Beijing that refuses to recognize the independence of a de facto sovereign entity that maintains its own government, currency, military, and diplomacy since the 1940s. Beijing, just like Moscow, uses political and cultural arguments to deny the independence of Taiwan and to claim it will reunite the island with the mainland, with the use of military force if necessary. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has continued to maintain “reunification” with Taiwan remains part of China’s larger geopolitical ambitions. The other parallel concerns military safety: Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but has been given assurances of a certain support from Europe and the US. Yet, as Russia continue its invasion, Brussels and Washington state clearly they will not send their troops onto Ukrainian territory, while providing technical, financial and political — and most recently, military — support. Instead, the US has increased their troop presence in NATO member states, bringing the total European deployment to 12,000. NATO has fortified its positions in Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Poland. This is almost exactly a scenario that could develop in Taiwan should Beijing decide to launch a military attack on the island. Taiwan relies for its safety on, besides its own military forces, the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) enacted by the US Congress in 1979, which says that “the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capabilities,” while not directly guaranteeing Washington would intervene in the case of a Chinese invasion. Thus, from the point of view of Taiwanese public opinion, how Washington, Tokyo, but also Beijing and Brussels react to the Russian war in Ukraine can be interpreted as a sign of how they might react in the case of an invasion of Taiwan. Veteran New York journalist Fan Qifei has pointed out the suspicious support of Putin’s actions in Ukraine by Xi Jinping, and the potential ramifications for Taiwan. While Beijing sides with Moscow on a number of global issues, including its criticism of NATO, China to this day has not recognized the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, a Ukrainian territory currently controlled by Moscow. Similarly, Beijing has not recognized the entities of the self-declared Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in the eastern parts of Ukraine. Moscow recognized those two entities as independent countries on February 21, 2022. While calling for diplomatic solutions, Beijing does condemn the West, specifically Washington and NATO, for “provoking Russia” into war. On February 25, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Putin held a phone conversation and Beijing called for “abandoning the Cold War mentality” while refusing to use the term “invasion” when describing the situation on the ground in Ukraine. Beijing abstained from the February 25 UN Security Council vote to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Xi Jinping has echoed the UN Charter and importance of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, he simultaneously denounced NATO’s expansion into the Russian sphere of influence, calling for diplomatic talks to resolve the war. Taiwan, known for its high tech industry, has quickly joined the US, UK and EU-led call for increased sanctions against Russia and has officially condemned the Russian invasion. The small community of about 200 Ukrainians living in Taiwan has also expressed their deep concern for the safety of their relatives in Ukraine. In response to the ongoing conflict, Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-Wen expressed that her administration will “continue to strengthen our readiness to respond to military developments in the Taiwan Strait,” and, in addition, “comprehensively strengthen our response to cognitive warfare in order to shore up public morale.” Citizens and institutions across Taiwan have expressed support for Ukraine.
Neighborhoods Review
Taiwan watches Ukraine closely wondering how the West would react in case of Chinese invasion
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