Former president Lula won first round over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro | Art: Global Voices Image credits: Ricardo Stuckert and Alan Santos When the results came in from Brazil's Oct. 2 elections — the most polarized and divisive elections since the country left the military dictatorship over 30 years ago — it felt like the pollsters missed something. Despite pointing to a steady and wide lead for former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT, Workers’ Party) over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro (PL, Liberal Party), the final countdown that led to the second round was tighter – 48.3 percent for Lula against 43.2 percent for Bolsonaro. The difference was 6 million votes. Out of 118 million valid votes, the other nine candidates got around 9.8 million combined. This means the vote concentrated heavily on the leading candidates with a real chance of winning. The 2022 presidential elections produced Brazil's tightest first round victory since redemocratization in the 1980s — but Lula came closer to 50% in the first round than his predecessors Dilma (2010, 2014) and Bolsonaro (2018). via @BrazilianReport pic.twitter.com/oWZXk9jzKI — Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷 (@OliverStuenkel) October 3, 2022 It’s the first time since re-election was approved in Brazil in the late 1990s that an incumbent didn’t get the most votes in the first round or go into the second as a favorite. Nevertheless, Bolsonaro's allies secured several wins with parliamentarians and governors and, in absolute numbers, he actually registered more votes than his first round in 2018. Journalist Jamil Chade writes that the performance shows that far-right bolsonarism has “put down roots.” Some of the candidates that split with the president in the last years failed to get re-elected. After the results, Bolsonaro, who had repeatedly said in the weeks leading up to elections that he wouldn’t accept any outcome other than a victory with at least 60 percent of votes, dodged a question from a reporter about it, making puns with the names of both women senators who also ran for presidency and were critical of him. He also claimed to understand those who wanted change, stressing that not every change was for good. On Twitter, he posted: - Muita gente se deixou levar pelas mentiras propagadas pelos institutos de pesquisas, que saíram do 1° turno completamente desmoralizados. Erraram todas as previsões e já são os maiores derrotados desta eleição. Vencemos essa mentira e agora vamos vencer a eleição! — Jair M. Bolsonaro 2️⃣2️⃣ (@jairbolsonaro) October 3, 2022 Many people let themselves be carried away by the lies spread by pollsters, which ended the first round completely demoralized. They got it wrong in every preview and they are already the losers of this election. We overcame this lie and now we will win the election! Meanwhile, Lula spoke to a crowd on Paulista Avenue, a place in São Paulo that served as the stage for some of Brazil's massive protests across the political spectrum in the last decade, evoking the memory of better days during his two terms and the impacts of inflation rates under Bolsonaro. He said: Para avaliar bem o que é que está acontecendo hoje, a gente tem que lembrar o que estava acontecendo há quatro anos, quando eu era tido como se fosse um ser humano jogado fora da política. E eu disse que a gente retornaria, com mais força, com mais vontade, com mais disposição, porque a única razão de a gente parar de lutar é o dia que o povo brasileiro tiver outras centenas e centenas de lideranças que consigam fazer com que eles conquistem aquilo que eles precisam para melhorar de vida. Vocês sabem que nosso país está pior. Você sabe que a economia não está boa, vocês sabem que a qualidade de vida não está boa, que a renda não está boa, que o emprego não está bom, que a saúde não está boa e que nós precisamos recuperar esse país, inclusive do ponto de vista das suas relações internacionais. To better evaluate what is happening today, we need to remember what was going on four years ago, when I was considered a human being thrown out of politics. And I said that we would come back, with more strength, more will power, more disposition, because the only reason we have to stop fighting is the day the Brazilian people will have hundreds and hundreds of leaders that conquer what it takes to improve their lives. You know our country is worse than it was. You know that the economy is not good, that life quality is not good, that healthcare is not good and that we need to recover this country, including from a point of view of international relations. Bolsonaro’s strength among voters was shown especially with the new senators elected.