Internal validity is the extent to which a piece of evidence supports a claim about cause and effect, within the context of a particular study. It is one of the most important properties of scientific studies and is an important concept in reasoning about evidence more generally. Internal validity is determined by how well a study can rule out alternative explanations for its findings (usually, sources of systematic error or 'bias'). It contrasts with external validity, the extent to which results can justify conclusions about other contexts (that is, the extent to which results can be generalized). Both internal and external validity can be described using qualitative or quantitative forms of causal notation.
Details
Inferences are said to possess internal validity if a causal relationship between two variables is properly demonstrated. A valid causal inference may be made when three criteria are satisfied: the "cause" precedes the "effect" in time (temporal precedence), the "cause" and the "effect" tend to occur together (covariation), and there are no plausible alternative explanations for the observed covariation (nonspuriousness).
In scientific experimental settings, researchers often change the state of one variable (the independent variable) to see what effect it has on a second variable (the dependent variable). For example, a researcher might manipulate the dosage of a particular drug between different groups of people to see what effect it has on health. In this example, the researcher wants to make a causal inference, namely, that different doses of the drug may be held responsible for observed changes or differences. When the researcher may confidently attribute the observed changes or differences in the dependent variable to the independent variable (that is, when the researcher observes an association between these variables and can rule out other explanations or rival hypotheses), then the causal inference is said to be internally valid.
In many cases, however, the size of effects found in the dependent variable may not just depend on variations in the independent variable, the power of the instruments and statistical procedures used to measure and detect the effects, and the choice of statistical methods (see: Statistical conclusion validity).
Rather, a number of variables or circumstances uncontrolled for (or uncontrollable) may lead to additional or alternative explanations (a) for the effects found and/or (b) for the magnitude of the effects found. Internal validity, therefore, is more a matter of degree than of either-or, and that is exactly why research designs other than true experiments may also yield results with a high degree of internal validity.
In order to allow for inferences with a high degree of internal validity, precautions may be taken during the design of the study. As a rule of thumb, conclusions based on direct manipulation of the independent variable allow for greater internal validity than conclusions based on an association observed without manipulation.
When considering only Internal Validity, highly controlled true experimental designs (i.e. with random selection, random assignment to either the control or experimental groups, reliable instruments, reliable manipulation processes, and safeguards against confounding factors) may be the "gold standard" of scientific research. However, the very methods used to increase internal validity may also limit the generalizability or external validity of the findings. For example, studying the behavior of animals in a zoo may make it easier to draw valid causal inferences within that context, but these inferences may not generalize to the behavior of animals in the wild. In general, a typical experiment in a laboratory, studying a particular process, may leave out many variables that normally strongly affect that process in nature.
Example threats
To recall eight of these threats to internal validity, use the mnemonic acronym, THIS MESS, which stands for: Testing, History, Instrument change, Statistical regression toward the mean, Maturation, Experimental mortality, Selection, and Selection Interaction.
Ambiguous temporal precedence
When it is not known which variable changed first, it can be difficult to determine which variable is the cause and which is the effect.
Confounding
A major threat to the validity of causal inferences is confounding: Changes in the dependent variable may rather be attributed to variations in a third variable which is related to the manipulated variable. Where spurious relationships cannot be ruled out, rival hypotheses to the original causal inference may be developed.