In the run-up to the Turkish general election of June 2015, many political parties engaged in campaign efforts to increase their vote shares. The main contesting parties were the governing incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by Ahmet Davutoğlu, the Republican People's Party (CHP) led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) led by Devlet Bahçeli and the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) co-led by Selahattin Demirtaş and Figen Yüksekdağ. These four parties are the only parties with a realistic chance of surpassing the 10% parliamentary threshold to gain representation in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey
Opinion polling for the June 2015 Turkish general election show that the AKP is on course to win a plurality of the vote with around 40%, the CHP remaining relatively stable at 25% and the MHP registering a large increase in their vote share by polling close to 20%. The HDP is critically hovering at the 10% boundary, with several polls showing the party surpassing it or scoring just below. Opinion polls in Turkey, however, are notoriously unreliable due to their alleged bias in favour of certain political organisations. Many polling companies have no record of existence and proper reports on polling operations are rarely provided by firms.
Overview
The following are the main parties that have engaged in active campaigning in the run-up to the election.
Justice and Development Party (AKP)
The AKP has publicly targeted 330 seats in order to be able to submit constitutional changes to a referendum. With drafting a new constitution being a central part of the AKP's manifesto, the party is expected to promote a presidential system and an advancement in the Solution process with Kurdish rebels in a new constitution. Critics have argued that such efforts would lead to a further decline in the separation of powers and democratic checks and balances, while the AKP has argued that the current constitution is outdated. Despite being constitutionally barred from being partisan, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made several statements in the lead-up to the election that set the AKP's electoral targets higher at 400 MPs, though even pro-AKP polling organisations show that such an eventuality is highly unlikely.
Announcing the party's manifesto on 15 April, Davutoğlu claimed that his party aimed to win 55% of the votes, and criticised Kılıçdaroğlu for his target of 35%.
Extraordinary Congress, 27 August 2014
Prime Minister Erdoğan, who was re-elected for a third time in the 2011 general election, was barred from standing as an MP for a fourth term by the AKP's by-laws. Erdoğan became his party's presidential candidate for the 2014 presidential election and won narrowly in the first round with 51.79% of the vote. His ascension to the presidency required him to sever all ties with political parties and step down from parliament, requiring the AKP to elect a new leader.
On 21 August 2014, Erdoğan chaired an AKP Central Executive Committee meeting, after which Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu was announced as a candidate for the leadership. Davutoğlu was unanimously elected unopposed as the AKP's 2nd leader on 27 August 2014, a day before Erdoğan was due to take over as president from Abdullah Gül. The fact that there was no rival, combined with the exclusive means by which Davutoğlu was effectively declared as Erdoğan's successor by the Central Executive Committee, led to criticism and concern about inner-party democracy.
Candidate selection
Due to the AKP by-law that prohibits party candidates from running for more than three parliamentary terms, founding members of the party who first entered parliament in the 2002 general election will not be able to seek election in 2015. As a result, the party has indicated that founding members will occupy senior positions within the party structure following the elections. In a four-point candidate selection strategy, the AKP has intended to maintain its constant renewal of candidates as had occurred in the 2011 general election without abandoning key figures or fundamental principles. The party will also aim to recruit university law, engineering and medical graduates into the party while also reducing the average age of its parliamentary group by offering candidates under the age of 30 an active role in politics. The AKP has also expressed intentions to elect over 80 female MPs to Parliament. Provincial congresses are due to finish on 15 February.