PHNOM PENH, CAMBODIA —
won’t be rushed. When speculation swirled almost two years ago that the prime minister’s eldest son would take over in this summer’s election, his father, Hun Sen, the premier for some 40 years, quashed it.
“I am still standing, so what’s the point of my son being the prime minister,” Hun Sen said . “So, his possible [premiership] is not before 2028. It is more likely to take place between 2028 and even 2030. He must wait.”
In the meantime, the 46-year-old son, Lt. Gen. Hun Manet, is marching into the political arena as a candidate for parliament on the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) ticket in July’s national election. The CPP is widely expected to win in a landslide.
“I can say that we are impressed with [Hun Manet’s] educational background and other qualities,” Son Chhay, a longtime opposition figure now among the Candlelight Party’s deputy presidents, told VOA Khmer in early February. “But we will have to wait and see how he seeks to resolve the country’s pressing issues including corruption, judicial independence to name a few.”
Hun Manet is among those emerging CPP leaders — mostly children of the old guard — who must convince the public that they have a modern vision for Cambodia, without making changes that undermine the patronage network that underpins the ruling party.
“Until Hun Sen dies and passes from the scene permanently, he will have a dominant role in Cambodian politics. Even if he is not formally serving as prime minister anymore, he will still be working behind the scenes to ensure a stable balance of power within the CPP,” Sebastian Strangio, author of , told VOA Khmer from Australia.
“If the transition of power is carried out smoothly without opposition from within the CPP, I predict that it probably won't change a lot,” Strangio said.
On April 20, Hun Manet became a four-star general, the rank enjoyed by top military leaders of his father's generation, men who began as young Khmer Rouge fighters under Pol Pot’s genocidal rule in the 1970s.
Hun Manet’s rise in the armed forces has come with a growing political portfolio.
He is a member of the ruling party’s powerful permanent committee. And along with his youngest brother, Hun Many, he has overseen efforts to expand the CPP’s support among Cambodian youth, a driving force behind the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party’s success in 2013.
“The change of guard, after more than 40 years, is a monumental event,” said Astrid Norén-Nilsson, an associate senior lecturer at the Center for East and Southeast Asian Studies, at Lund University in Sweden. “With the coming to power of a new generation of Ph.D. holders, we can expect the incoming government to relate in new ways to society compared to their parents’ generation, and for power to speak in new ways.”
However, the backdrop of this year’s election underscores the challenge facing the new generation.
In early March, opposition leader to 25 years under house arrest.
Later that month, opposition activists were arrested for social media posts criticizing the prime minister. And in February, the independent news agency Voice of Democracy and access to its English and Khmer-language websites was blocked inside the country.
Strangio agreed the ascension of younger CPP leaders represents “an important generational change” but maintaining the CPP patronage system will “foreclose any major degree of reform.”
He continued, “I do think that they will continue to have to work within the logic of the system, which in many ways has been designed to resist political reform.”
Over the past two years, Hun Manet has become a ubiquitous presence, speaking at inaugurations for hospitals, schools, Buddhist temples, factories and even hotels — a role fulfilled by his father for decades.
As part of his official duties, ostensibly as commander of the Royal Cambodian Army, he with 29 senior defense officials and at least 10 world leaders, including Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Hun Manet's social media platforms look like his father’s, with a news feed filled with video clips and commentary boasting of the CPP’s legacy of peace and economic development. His speeches often sound like his father’s, beginning with a formal speech, then pivoting into political commentary or responding to media reports that angered him.
While it is clear that Hun Manet is primed to take over, it is less clear what will happen when he does, said Ear Sophal, a senior associate dean and an associate professor in the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University.