President Vladimir Putin painted a rosy picture of the Russian economy Thursday, but economic experts say that its fortunes still will be weighed down by low world oil prices and the effect of Western sanctions imposed on Moscow because of its intervention in the Ukrainian conflict.
During a four-hour call-in show televised nationwide, Putin said the Russian economy, predicted by its central bank to contract by as much as 5 percent this year, could advance again in less than two years. That is faster than he predicted when the United States and European countries first announced the sanctions last year.
Despite last year’s devaluation, "the ruble has stabilized and strengthened," Putin said. "Experts believe that we have passed the peak of the problems. Nothing burst and everything is working."
Thursday's call-in show is an annual event, now in its 13th year, in which Putin takes questions from Russian audiences.
The wide-ranging event focused heavily on the country's contracting economy and the impact of Western sanctions and falling global oil oil prices. But it also included Putin's observations about Russia's strained relationship with the United States; the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine; and the February murder of Kremlin critic Boris Nemtsov.
His message generally was optimistic about Russia and critical of the United States.
"If we preserve a stable situation in domestic politics, preserve the current consolidation of society, we shouldn't fear any threats," said Putin, who enjoys 80 percent approval ratings in his country, The Associated Press reported.
Feodor Krasheninnikov, a political analyst based in Yekaterinburg, told VOA the moment reminded him of the late Soviet period when communist leaders proudly read lists of economic achievements – most of which were nonexistent.
"The list is there, but the accomplishments aren't. And viewers understand that completely," he said. "Putin's positive spin is unconvincing and he knows it."
Krasheninnikov said that while the call-in show normallly is a scripted Kremlin event, concerns over the economy had to be addressed.
"I think of the millions of questions submitted to Putin ... many had to do with the economy. I think they'd rather criticize the U.S. or Europe or talk about Ukraine.... But people want to talk about how life is getting harder," he said.
Indeed, Putin's former finance minister Alexei Kudrin was in the audience and argued the president's rosy picture of the economy was misguided. Viewers, too, questioned progress in agriculture, public utilities and small business growth, repeatedly asking the Russian leader to intervene personally.
Throughout the call-in, Putin downplayed capital flight out of Russia – estimated at more than $100 billion last year – as well as soaring inflation and unemployment, saying they had not had a catastrophic effect.
The International Monetary Fund also is forecasting a recession in Russia this year, with falling prices for crude oil on the global market the key factor for Moscow's oil-dependent economy.
Asked in Washington about Putin's rosier assessment of the Russian economy, Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director, did not alter her organization’s prediction. But she said, "I would not like anything better than to be proven wrong in any country where we forecast negative growth."
Roman Sheremeta, an economics professor at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, told VOA that Putin's assessment of an improving economy is at odds with the 17 percent inflation it recorded last year and the growing effect of the sanctions.
"I see a big dissonance, a big difference with what actually is and what he actually claims," the professor said. "I really can't put my finger on who would trust this kind of message."
Sheremeta said Putin's favorable economic message is aimed at the Russian population, even if outside analysts dismiss it. "I don't see any prospect of the economy improving because the sanctions are going to hit even harder next year," he added.
Putin said Russia must use the time under Western sanctions "to reach new levels of development," Putin said, citing pressure to come up with substitutes for embargoed goods. "... I hope that this is encouraging us to develop high-tech industries with faster rates [of growth] than before."
Putin also used the forum to point up the chilly relations between the United States and Russia, saying Washington must treat Moscow as an equal on the global stage before any reset in bilateral relations.
The United States tries to dominate international relations, Putin charged, adding that Russia still is "always open to cooperation."