WASHINGTON —
As President Joe Biden’s administration prepares to transfer power to the incoming team of President-elect Donald Trump, VOA Ukrainian Iuliia Iarmolenko spoke with Michael Carpenter, the National Security Council director for Europe. Carpenter discussed the Biden administration's final efforts to strengthen Ukraine and why it would take more time and resources from Washington to start successful negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
In September, we talked about Ukraine's “victory plan” and now it seems like the conversation is moving towards the negotiation process. Do you think the victory of Ukraine is still possible? And is there something that the Biden administration can still do to help Ukraine achieve that goal?
I do. I do think victory is possible. I think Ukraine must prevail. I think for the good of the international order, for the good of security in Europe and for the good of all those brave Ukrainians that are fighting for their freedom, it must prevail. The question is, what can we do now to set Ukraine up to be in a position of strength? It's going to take a dedicated effort of providing additional security assistance in order to stabilize the lines. And it's going to take a range of other efforts, including macro financial assistance, humanitarian support, support for the energy sector. But this is underway. And this administration, although it only has a month left in office, will continue to surge the support and it will spend every penny. Every dollar of security assistance that has been authorized for Ukraine will be obligated by the end of this year.
But is there enough time? The Pentagon yesterday said that they might not be able to use every dollar, every penny of the remaining funding to provide security assistance.
Oh, they will. They will. Now, some of that security assistance is on contract, so some of it will not arrive until 2025. But all of the money will be spent down by January 20th.
Air defense continues to be the biggest issue for Ukrainian civilians. In that remaining time, will the air defense be prioritized in order to give Ukrainian civilians some kind of protection?
Of all the capabilities that Ukraine needs, air defense is the most important one because this goes to the protection of cities which Russia has been targeting, targeting relentlessly with its drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, including the Oreshnik. And then also for critical infrastructure. It's really important to have, maybe not always Patriots, but a smaller version of an air defense system.
So that is absolutely the priority. The problem is that a lot of our partners and allies have dug so deep into their own stocks that they don't have a whole lot left to give. So we are talking with all of our allies, seeing what else we can possibly get in advance of the winter to give Ukraine the air defense that it needs.
President-elect Trump and his team talk about ending the war in 24 hours. And they also say that they're coordinating their work with the current administration. Is there a consensus between the two teams about the need for a just peace in Ukraine, not just for an end of fighting?
I can't speak for the Trump administration that's coming into office soon. You'll have to ask them for their views. What I can say is that in order for a negotiation to be successful, it has to be leveraged appropriately. And so Ukraine needs to be able to approach that negotiation from a position of strength, which first and foremost means stopping the erosion of the forward line of troops in the Donbas and at least stabilizing those lines, if not reversing the momentum. That's going to take some time. So it's going to take into 2025 and it's going to take resources. It's going to take additional security assistance, in order for Ukraine to be able to do that. Now, look, the notion that the Russians are really strong right now is, I think, false. We have seen that as many as 600,000 Russian casualties have accumulated over the course of these 2½ years of war and the Russian economy of course, inflation, is picking up. Interest rates are at 21%, potentially even going higher. Russia's not 10 feet tall. But, that said, we will have to resource Ukraine in order for it to be able to prevail. And no matter what administration or what country you're in, and what political party you affiliate with, that is an objective fact, that Ukraine will need to have the strength provided by resources to be able to approach Russia and have a negotiation where they can protect their sovereignty and independence.