South Africa' ruling African National Congress Party (ANC)has dismissed as a joke a new poll which suggests the ruling party is runningneck and neck with the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) in urban areas. Thelatest poll conducted by an independent newspaper ahead of next year's generalelections implies that growing discontentment after the forced resignation ofPresident Thabo Mbeki is hurting the ANC among urban South Africans. But theruling ANC rejected the poll as laughable. Some political observers, however,believe that rifts within the rank and file of the ANC after the Polokwaneconference could threaten the cohesion of the party ahead of next year'selections.
RokAjulu is a political science professor in South Africa. He tells reporter PeterClottey from the capital, Pretoria that the new poll is questionable.
"Myopinion about that poll is that that cannot be possibly true. There have beensimilar polls in the run up to the general election, which predicted that theANC would face stiff challenge from the opposition Democratic Alliance. But theDA didn't perform well and it came to nothing with the ANC getting nearly twothirds percent. But beyond that I think the question that is probably morepressing is how these polls, which are clearly inaccurate and based mainly onperception are conducted," Ajulu said.
Hedismissed the latest poll as not credible.
"Itis unbelievable; it is not possible by any consideration that the ANC and theDA can be running neck to neck in urban areas in South Africa, it is actuallylaughable. So, it sounds like a very bad joke. It is not possible because theDA is a small party of about 10% of mainly white South Africans and ANC is aparty of 69%. It is not possible by any consideration that all of a sudden aparty of 69% is running neck and neck in a predominantly African populationelectorate in the urban areas," he pointed out.
Ajulusaid although the controversy surrounding Mbeki's resignation might have dentedthe internal political dynamics of the ANC, it would be largely extrapolated tothink that the opposition Democratic Alliance is challenging the ruling partyin the latest poll.
"Letme put it this way and very clearly. However, much the ANC has been dented bythe events of the last two or three weeks, there is no possibility that the ANCwould be running neck and neck with the DA. The DA is a small white minorityparty predominantly based on the white electorates. This is either a badlyconducted sample of polls or based on a very narrow sample," Ajulu said.
Hesaid there is enough time for the deep seated rift within the rank a file ofthe ruling ANC to heal ahead of the election in April next year.
"TheANC has got six to seven months for the next elections and that is why in theprocess of making a decision over Mbeki, the ANC was reluctant to call for aquick election. Lets assume that they've got six to seven months to heal andrepair the rifts within the party, consolidate and prepare for the election.The only other possibility if as it is said there is a split as in the ANC agroup of Mbeki supporters go in to form a new party, that could change thesituation, but even then it's too late for a new party to garner support," henoted.
Meanwhile, some politicalanalysts say the survey of 1,500 city dwellers -- disproportionately whiteand middle class -- by the Sunday Times newspaper does not represent thebroader public opinion. But the paper said the poll showed rising discontentwith the ANC after the ousting of Thabo Mbeki as president.
TheANC has dominated South African politics since the end of apartheid but hasbeen damaged by bitter rivalry between Mbeki and party leader Jacob Zuma, thepresumed frontrunner to win next year's presidential election.