Presidential elections were held in Belarus on 11 October 2015. Long-term president Alexander Lukashenko ran for his fifth term in office, having won every presidential election since independence in 1991. He was re-elected with 84% of the vote, according to official figures. The 'against all' option received more votes than any opposition candidate.
As with previous elections in Belarus, the 2015 election was not democratic. In a report following the election, Miklós Haraszti, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on human rights in Belarus, determined that the results were not free and fair and that "the election process was orchestrated, and the result was pre-ordained", given extensive limits on civil and political rights in Belarus and a high level of election-day fraud.
Background
Prior to the vote, six incarcerated opposition figures were pardoned by Lukashenko. The move was welcomed by the OSCE electoral observer mission with the head of the delegation, Kent Härstedt, saying: "The recent release of political prisoners and a welcoming approach to observers were positive developments. However, the hope that this gave us for broader electoral progress was largely unfulfilled." The International Federation for Human Rights reported that it is likely that released political prisoners in Belarus still have many rights curtailed, such as inability to work for the government or run for public office, police visitations, and restriction of travel. Fewer protests occurred during this presidential election than during others, mostly due to unease over the Maidan protests in Ukraine two years prior. The government of Belarus exploited this unease by advocating stability over change, and even opposition leaders opposed protests.
Candidates
A total of eight candidates attempted to register to run in the elections by collecting the required 100,000 signatures; incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko running as an independent, Belarusian Left Party "A Just World" chairman Sergey Kalyakin, Liberal Democratic Party chairman Sergei Gaidukevich, People's referendum member Tatsiana Karatkevich, United Civic Party chairman Anatoly Lebedko, economist Viktor Tereshchenko (who ran in the 2010 elections), unemployed teacher Zhanna Romanovskaya and Belarusian Patriotic Party chairman Nikolai Ulakhovich.
Although five candidates (Lukashenko, Ulakhovich, Gaidukevich, Tereshchenko and Karatkevich) obtained over 100,000 signatures, the vast majority of Tereshchenko's signatures were declared invalid, resulting in only four candidates (marked in bold) being able to contest the elections. Of the four candidates, only one genuine opposition candidate was permitted to run; the others were considered pro-government candidates.
Party system
Unlike in other nations, Belarusian political parties do not hold very significant influence in parliament or in elections. For instance, Lukashenko himself runs as an independent instead of representing a political party. Opposition parties are allowed to exist, but only in a nominal sense as they hold virtually no power in government. Tatsiana Karatkevich represented the "People's Referendum" in the 2015 election, which is an initiative created by a coalition of various opposition leaders instead of a political party.
Campaign
The government allowed an unauthorized opposition rally in the capital, Minsk, to go ahead on the eve of the election without police intervention but Lukashenko warned that post-election protests would not be tolerated. On the same day, the winner of the 2015 Nobel Prize in Literature (announced just two days prior), Svetlana Alexievich, warned Europe to beware of Lukashenko's government as an alleged "soft dictatorship."
Amid a declining economy (including devaluation of the rubel and a reduction in exports to Russia), Lukashenko changed his election slogan from an economic one ("For a prosperous and strong Belarus" was used in the 2010 campaign) to an independent-focused one ("For the Future of Independent Belarus").
Opinion polls
Conduct
As with previous elections in Belarus, the 2015 election took place in an authoritarian environment. Like previous elections in post-Soviet Belarus, the 2015 election was marked by an increase in the degree of election fraud and unfairness that inflated Lukashenko's margin of victory, although Lukashenko might have been able to obtain a majority even without vote-rigging.