The U.S. is on track to resettle roughly one in five refugees it could admit from the Middle East and Latin America this fiscal year, signaling regional disparities that are widening faster and more continuously than at any other period in nearly 20 years.
A review of U.S. State Department data by VOA this week shows that from Oct. 1, 2018, to May 31, 2019, the country resettled 14% of the 3,000 refugee spots allocated for refugees from Latin America and the Caribbean this fiscal year, and 16% of the 9,000 spots for refugees from the Middle East and South Asia.
At the same time, the U.S. is on track to fill the allocations for European (3,000) and East Asian (4,000) refugees, and surpass its allotment for African (11,000) refugees.
Asked about the differences in arrivals of refugees from different regions, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said in an emailed statement that "refugee admissions rarely proceed at a steady pace throughout the year and are often higher in the second half of the year. The regional allocations are based on planning estimates at the beginning of each fiscal year. Arrivals from any one region often are higher or lower than the planned allocation."
That allocations are going over the limit in some regions and under in others "points to the sort of intentional … and even if not intentional, discriminatory effect we're looking at," said Denise Bell, a researcher on refugee and migrant rights at Amnesty International USA, who refugees in Jordan and Lebanon to understand the impact of U.S. policies on those awaiting resettlement.
A VOA review of data since fiscal 2001 showed that in most years, 75% to 100% of the allocated spots for each region were filled, and never did a region drop below that threshold for three years in a row.
With 3½ months left in the fiscal year, there is little optimism among refugee advocates that the numbers for Latin American and Middle Eastern refugees will rebound. The U.S. could also fall short of the so-called "ceiling" on the number of refugees that will be admitted this fiscal year: 30,000. That figure is already in the 30 years of the country's formal refugee program.
Permanent resettlement is needed when refugees cannot return to their home countries and have needs that cannot be met in the countries where they sought asylum. UNHCR estimated that in 2019, 1.4 million refugees would need permanent resettlement, a 17% increase over the previous year.
While President Donald Trump and his Cabinet have backed policies drastically curbing the U.S. refugee program, Americans are split. A 2018 found that 51% believe the U.S. has a responsibility to accept refugees. That figure was down from 56% the previous year. Along political party lines, however, the numbers are increasingly disparate: Among Republicans, just 26% felt the U.S. had that responsibility. For Democrats surveyed, it was 74% — a wider gap between the two sides than a year earlier.
Since fiscal 2001, the U.S. government has filled on average nearly three of every four admission spots set by the president each September. Other than a slump in the two fiscal years following the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, the U.S. has not seen such a precipitous as it has under the Trump administration, or in more than one region for three consecutive fiscal years, as it has with Latin America and the Middle East.
Researchers like Bell point to two primary reasons for the regional decreases. In the case of Latin America, the decrease resulted from the end of the in November 2017. It allowed some children in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras — the Northern Triangle countries from which the current spike in families crossing the U.S.-Mexico border stems — a pathway to apply for refugee resettlement in the United States while still in their home countries.
It was a way to prevent the dangers children would face in attempting the lengthy trek north to be reunited with a parent who, according to the terms of the program, had to be lawfully present in the U.S.
In April 2019, the Trump administration agreed to allow 2,700 Central American children who were already in the CAM application process when the program was canceled in the U.S.
Depending on the speed with which those children's travel plans are finalized, there could be an uptick in Latin America's refugee numbers before the end of the fiscal year in September. With 409 of 3,000 refugee spots for the region filled by the end of May, the U.S. could meet or slightly surpass the limit if every CAM child is resettled by then.