Screenshot from Megaphone's video on Lebanon's post-2005 political scene. Picture, in a distorted way, the so-called ‘Christian marriage’, when Samir Geagea endorsed Michel Aoun for presidency. Source: Megaphone. The following is the first in a series of articles offering context on the 2018 Lebanese elections, due to be held on May 6, 2018. The articles are prepared by alternative media platform Megaphone and edited for Global Voices by Middle East and North Africa editor Joey Ayoub and author Elias Abou Jaoudeh. The last few years in Lebanon have seen some potentially paradigm-shifting developments in the country’s political arena. The two coalitions that have dominated the landscape for more than a decade, known as March 14 and March 8, have suffered internal chaos and a number of parties that are secular or non-aligned have emerged, challenging a system based on religious and ethnic quotas. In addition, the parliament finally ratified a long-discussed electoral law, doing away with the previous “winner-takes-all” set-up in favor of proportional representation, but within the context of sectarianism where each sect is assigned a number of seats in parliament and positions in government. With elections approaching in May 2018, many in Lebanon are now wondering whether Lebanese politics is on the brink of something new or whether the situation will, despite everything, largely remain unchanged. To understand the current state of Lebanese politics, you first have to understand why Michel Aoun’s election as president in 2016 could have marked the beginning of a new era in Lebanese politics. Ultimately, it appeared to be the end of the political binary between the March 8 and March 14 alliances that has gripped the country since 2005, but first… On February 14, 2005, Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, along with twenty-one other victims, was assassinated in an explosion. This event triggered large-scale popular protests referred to as the Independence Intifada or Cedar Revolution, which led to the resignation of the then-cabinet and the withdrawal of tens of thousands of Syrian troops and security forces from the country, present in Lebanon since the end of the country's civil war in 1990. Consequently, the political scene was divided into the pro-Syrian regime March 8 Alliance and the anti-Syrian regime March 14 Alliance, each named for when their large demonstrations took place in 2005. The characterization of ‘pro’ and ‘anti’ here refers to their positions on the presence of Syrian troops on Lebanese territory since 1990. Prior to the 2005 parliamentary elections, Michel Aoun returned from exile in France, where he fled the Syrian regime in 1990 following an unsuccessful mutiny, and his party, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), won most of the country’s Christian votes. However, it was the March 14 Alliance, led by Saad Hariri, Rafik Hariri's son, that received the overall parliamentary majority. Things immediately got more complicated as Aoun's FPM signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Hezbollah only nine months after the elections, marking the party’s first step towards joining the March 8 Alliance. Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, Left, with the Free Patriotic Movement's Michel Aoun, Right, when they signed the Memorandum of Understanding on February 6, 2006 at the Mar Mikhael Church. Source: Megaphone By the end of 2005, the two camps were more clearly defined. The March 14 Alliance is dominated by the Sunni “Future Movement” and the Christian “Lebanese Forces” and “Kataeb”, while the March 8 Alliance is dominated by the Shia “Hezbollah” and “Amal”, and the Christian FPM. A number of smaller parties from all sects are part of each alliance as well. Occupying its own spectrum but mostly aligned with the March 14 Alliance, the largest Druze party, the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), took part in the anti-Syrian regime demonstrations. It formally left March 14 in 2009. Following the 2006 July War between Hezbollah and Israel, the divisions between the two opposing sides increased. There were many points of contention, but three in particular: the reign of President Emile Lahoud, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, and Hezbollah's military weapons: “There will be no Lebanese-Syrian relations as long as Assad is in power” – Prime Minister Saad Hariri at a conference in December of 2017. Source: Megaphone. These political disputes all took place within the tense context of bombings, assassinations, and official sit-ins. The situation was further exacerbated when, in 2008, the March 14-led government dismantled Hizbollah’s communications network following an official consideration of its illegality.