Theauthor of a new book says the next U.S. president will need to pay closeattention to the volatile political situation in Egypt, one of America'sstrongest and most important allies in the Middle East. The author believes U.S. policymakers nowface a difficult choice: continuing to support the iron-fisted rule of Egypt'scurrent president and his likely hand-picked successor, or backing a beleaguereddemocratic opposition that some believe could open the door to Islamicfundamentalist rule.
Inhis new book,Egyptian-American writer AladdinElaasar offers the next American president hisblunt assessment of Egypt's near-term outlook. Elaasar believes President Hosni Mubarak, America's "strongman" in Egypt and the recipient of billions of dollars in U.S. militaryand development aid, is losing his grip on power after 26 years of autocraticrule.
Theauthor believes there are many signs that time is running out for Mubarak, whosucceeded President Anwar Sadat after the 1981 assassination and who won acontroversial multi-party election to a six-year term in 2005. Elaasar saysEgypt's severe economic problems are just one sign that Mubarak's grip on poweris loosening. "There is about 37%unemployment in Egypt," Elaasar notes. "There is about 2% to 5% ofthe people who monopolize the economy and these people are elites aroundMubarak and his party. And there is at least 40% of the people in Egypt wholive under the poverty line. So there are a lot of indications of socialailments and illnesses and we need to pay attention to that."
Elaasarcites the Mubarak government's well-documented use of repression andpolice-state tactics to intimidate or silence its political opponents. Thosetactics earned Mubarak strong rebukes from the U.S. and other countriesfollowing the 2005 presidential election, which critics claim was massivelyrigged to ensure a Mubarak victory. AndElaasar sees a rising tide of popular frustration and dissatisfaction withMubarak that encompasses labor unions, teachers, lawyers, judges and youththroughout the country.
Elaasarsays the situation in Egypt today reminds him of Iran just before the 1979overthrow of the Shah by Islamic fundamentalists. "Mubarak reminds me ofthe last days of the Shah," the author says. "He was living a life ofextravagance and surrounded by his elites. He was so oppressive. And thatpaved the way for the extreme right to come in. And we know the rest of thestory."
In Elaasar writes that the next American president can expect one ofseveral difficult scenarios to unfold in Egypt in the months ahead. "The Mubarak regime is preparing itselffor the next step," the author explains, "which is making his son,Gamal Mubarak, to be the next president of Egypt. But the other scenario thatcan play out is that there are other political powers, so it could be theextreme religious right that can take over, or things can get out of controlbecause of the poverty level and the suffering of the Egyptian people, so thepeople in the street can do something when things reach a very desperatelevel."
AuthorAlaadin Elaasar urges the next American president to shift U.S. policies onEgypt toward strategies that promote democracy in the country.
"Wereally need to make sure that there would be democracy and change,"Elaasar warns, "because if this does not start, people reach the extent ofdesperateness. And then desperatenessbreathes out all kinds of violence and all kinds of extremism that opens thedoor for extremists to jump in and pretend they have the solution."
Theauthor says the worst-case scenario in Egypt would be a military coup, whichwould turn Egypt into what he describes as a "God-knows-what" regime.
Elaasar'sbelief in the imminent collapse of the Mubarak government is not shared by theformer U.S Ambassador to Egypt, Nicholas Veliotis, who served under U.S.President Jimmy Carter. Ambassador Veliotis says he hopes the Mubarakgovernment will respond to the Egyptian people's powerful yearnings fordemocracy. But whether it does or not, Veliotis does not expect the Mubarakregime to go the way of the Shah of Iran. "I personally do not seeanything happening like what happened in Iran," he says. "I believethere are broader institutions in Egypt. They were not in Iran. We are notdealing with a pre-Iranian revolution situation. If you ask my view, I thinkthe successor, whoever it is, should be a civilian. Egypt is far beyond thetime when it needs another general to come in."