Officials in Russia now often discuss the lives of transgender people: for example, according to Vyacheslav Volodin, Speaker of the Russian Parliament, “a person gets up in the morning and decides for himself that he is no longer a man, but a woman; not a woman, but a man,” and on the Russia 1 TV channel they report: “A stamen will never become a pistil, and a pistil will never become a stamen.” In 2021 the Ministry of Health was preparing to adopt a law with advanced approaches to helping trans people, but, over the past year, the situation of the community in the country has deteriorated greatly. In October 2022 , a new law “on propaganda” was adopted, and in May 2023 the Ministry of Justice actively discussed either making it more difficult or completely banning gender reassignment treatment. In light of the possible adoption of a law prohibiting gender transitioning in Russia, Holod magazine asked the community and experts about what is to follow. On behalf of Holod, LGBTQ+ activist and writer Sasha Kazantseva spoke to psychologist and Center T director Jan Dvorkin, KilkoT Action activist Anton, and trans activist and gender researcher Anna about what trans people are preparing for in Russia.” Global Voices translated and published the article with permission from Holod. It is very difficult to manage uncertainty and threats from the state. A lot of transgender people in Russia have anxiety or depression and statistically, 40 percent of these people have attempted suicide (in comparison with the overall population rates of 5 percent). This statistic is horrible and it may get worse. It is frightening when you are called an ‘enemy of the state’ at the state level and they want to forcefully treat you. Rejection and violence against trans people are likely to rise with the legal backing of such discrimination. In particular, I am concerned about teenagers. Since 2013, they have had limited rights and access to support, but they held onto the hope that things would improve after turning 18. (Ed: After adopting the law “on propaganda” of LGBTQ+ to minors in 2013, LGBTQ+ organizations and LGBTQ+-friendly doctors in Russia lost the opportunity to interact with teenagers legally. Teenagers could no longer seek psychological help or information and could not communicate with them about problems related to gender and sexuality.) With diminished hope for the future, coping with the challenges they face will become even more difficult. Despite the potential illegality of hormone therapy, transgender individuals will likely continue to pursue it due to its efficacy in alleviating gender dysphoria. However, illegal hormone therapy poses health risks, and the inability to change legal documents will lead to avoidance of situations where identification is required. This marginalization will hinder integration into society, and complicate travel, legal transactions, and access to medical care. Ultimately, transgender people will face increased exclusion and lack the basic rights afforded to others. The consequences of these initiatives in Russia will result in the majority of transgender people losing opportunities for easy societal integration, losing opportunities for relief from gender dysphoria, and the ability to live comfortably in their affirmed gender. In fact, we will see the marginalization of transgender people. There would be only two ways out: to stay and live in secrecy or emigrate. I estimate that only about 10 percent of transgender people in Russia have the ability and resources to emigrate. And for those staying in Russia, the possibility to find work will be much more difficult, and the scale of involvement in marginal work, sex work, would increase, and income would decrease. There would also appear a heightened dependence on potentially transphobic family members. It is important to know that many relatives [in Russia] are transphobic and communication with them will affect the mental state of a transgender person. They live and know that they are not accepted by a society, but they also constantly receive condemnation from those close to them. Even the anticipation of these changes has already had an impact on the lives of trans people in Russia. The news alone has shocked even those who transitioned in the past, in 1990s and 2000s, and have already witnessed a lot of bad things happening. There is now a rush among transgender people to obtain diagnosis and change their legal documents, but limited availability of certification commissions may prevent many from completing the process before the new law is implemented.