In international relations, credibility is the perceived likelihood that a leader or a state follows through on threats and promises that have been made. Credibility is a key component of coercion (i.e. compellence and deterrence), as well as the functioning of military alliances. Credibility is related to concepts such as reputation (how past behavior shapes perceptions of an actor's tendencies) and resolve (the willingness to stand firm while incurring costs). Reputation for resolve may be a key component of credibility, but credibility is also highly context-dependent.
Credibility may be determined through assessments of power, past reputation, current interests, and signaling. Situational and dispositional factors may affect perceptions of credibility. Misperception and miscommunication can lead to erroneous assessments of credibility. Assessments of reputation may be linked to specific leaders, as well as states.
Coercion
Much of the scholarship on coercion focuses on the credibility of coercive threats as a key component of the success of coercive diplomacy. According to Thomas Schelling, a reputation for resolve "is one of the few things worth fighting over."
Successful coercion frequently revolves around a demonstration of capabilities and resolve, both of which enhance the credibility of attempts to coerce others. According to Richard Ned Lebow, a credible threat entails:
A formulated commitment
A communication of that commitment to the other side
The capability to back up the commitment
The will to back up the commitment
According to Robert Art, the perquisites for compellence success are:
Clear objectives
Strong motivation
Domestic and international support
Strong leadership
Clearly stated demands
Creation of a sense of urgency in the other state's mind
Making the target fear unacceptable escalation
Asymmetry in motivation
Matthew Fuhrmann and Todd Sechser argue that there are three main components to credibility in coercion:
Ability to impose one's will militarily on the target
The stakes in a dispute (to both the challenger and the target) The cost of military conflict (to both the challenger and the target)
According to Anne Sartori, states rarely seek to obtain goals through bluffing, because doing so undermines their reputation in future crises. Survey experiment data from Barbara Walter and Dustin Tingley confirm the findings of Sartori's study, as they find that people "invest more heavily in reputation building if they believe a game will be repeated many times."
Credibility (or reputation) refers to the degree to which an actor is expected to uphold their commitments based on past behavior. In terms of credible coercive diplomacy, credibility entails that defiance will be met with punishment, and that compliance will be met with restraint. One of the main problems in coercive diplomacy is that it is hard to credibly signal that compliance will not lead to punishment. Some scholars have argued that when great powers increase their power, their credibility to engage in restraint decreases, which may lead weaker adversaries to be less likely to comply with great power threats.
To enhance the credibility of threats, some scholars argue that audience costs are effective in doing so. Other scholars dispute that audience costs enhance credibility.
Some scholars question whether credibility or reputation matters in international disputes.
States may be motivated to pay high costs in order to maintain reputations for resolve. They are most likely to do so when they expect that they will face future challenges where they will benefit from having reputations for resolve.
Costly signaling
Some scholarship suggests that the credibility of threats is enhanced by costly signaling, which means that the threats themselves incur costs, which signify that the threats are genuine.