washington —
In an election year beset with uncertainties, one thing is clear: Americans find a November rematch between U.S. President Joe Biden and his leading Republican challenger, former U.S. President Donald Trump, even less appealing than the first time around in 2020.
A January showed most Americans do not want Biden and Trump to run again and that they are tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections.
Trump is besieged by legal woes, and both he and Biden are seen as too old, although polls show more Americans worry about Biden, who would be 81 on Election Day, than Trump, who would be 78.
So, why are Americans in this predicament?
The short answer, according to analysts, is that both Biden and Trump want another term, and they operate in a political system geared to favor incumbents.
A second term could deliver vindication for Trump who since losing to Biden in 2020 has pushed baseless claims that the election was stolen, said Thomas Schwartz, a presidential historian with Vanderbilt University.
Trump's critics accuse him of running not for the good of the country but to stay out of prison, something he denies. Trump faces 91 criminal charges under four indictments: for falsifying his business records in New York, for withholding classified federal government documents in Florida, and for attempting to overturn the 2020 election in two separate cases in Washington and the state of Georgia.
These indictments have not hurt his poll numbers, said Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs in the U.S.
"Trump has a very strong connection with his base," Young told VOA. "It's almost unbreakable."
Revisiting grievances that resonate with MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republicans, Trump dominated the primaries — the statewide voting processes in which voters select a party's nominee who will compete in the general election — held so far. He is expected to handily win the rest, capitalizing on a system that amplifies the most ideologically fervent voices of the electorate.
This is particularly true in states with "closed" primaries where voters must register with a party before voting. The process shuts out independent and unaffiliated voters, and candidates win by taking on the most ideologically extreme positions.
"You have an overwhelming vote for Donald Trump among Republican primary voters," Schwartz told VOA.
But even "open" primaries, where registered voters regardless of their political affiliation can vote for any candidate, reflect only a small share of the electorate. In U.S. elections since 2000, the average turnout rate for primary elections is 27% of registered voters, compared to 60.5% for general elections.
Like any incumbent American president, Biden sees a second term as a vindication of his achievements, Schwartz said.
Biden secured a series of legislative wins, led the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and presided over an economy where recession fears have eased, growth and job gains are beating expectations, and inflation is cooling.
"It is possible for Joe Biden to declare himself a successful one-term president and step aside. He just doesn't want to," Schwartz noted, citing Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson who decided not to run again in March of 1952 and 1968 respectively. "And the party is not strong enough to tell him to do so."
Democrats see Biden as the best barricade against their biggest fear — another Trump administration, Schwartz said. Had Trump not been in the race, he added, they would have been more willing to challenge Biden.
"What I'm hearing is, we're riding with Biden," said Democratic strategist Corryn Grace Freeman.
This despite progressives' frustration with the president's inability to fully cancel student loan debt and his response to the Israel-Hamas war, she told VOA.
"There are many people that cannot support this president, who also don't like Donald Trump, who just feel like the Democratic Party consistently fails us," she said, adding that support from Blacks and Latinos "is beginning to dwindle because of how this president has shown up."
Democrats are now stuck in an extraordinarily high-risk gamble where a potential health or other age-related incident could further discourage voters, Schwartz warned. But despite Biden's weak poll numbers and questions about his age, there is no Plan B for Democrats.
"No viable alternative got into the race," said Elaine Kamarck, senior fellow in Governance Studies and the director of the Center for Effective Public Management at Brookings Institution. "You can't beat something with nothing," she told VOA.