Darfurian human rights activist Omer Ismail says the deathtoll in the crisis in his homeland, which began in earnest in 2003 when rebelsrose in revolt against the Sudan government, has long been a point ofcontention.
"Thegovernment always says we are exaggerating the numbers of people killed anddisplaced in order to gain international sympathy, whereas we feel the state islying about the actual numbers of people harmed by the conflict in order todivert attention from themselves," says Ismail, a policy advisor at the EnoughProject.
Hesays Moreno-Ocampo's recent action has given new impetus to arguments amongactivists, Sudan government members and analysts about whether or not genocide hasactually occurred in Darfur.
"Letus be clear that we are not saying what has happened is exactly the same aswhat happened in Rwanda. They are different conflicts. Different situations.But they are the same in that murder on a mass scale has happened in bothlocations," says Ismail.
The question of exactly how many people have been killed and displaced inDarfur is extremely important, he emphasizes, because of the "greatimplications" it holds for the international response to the events unfoldingin the region.
A spokesman for the Sudan embassy in Washington, D.C.,Seif Yasin, puts it this way: "The more people that are said to have died, themore evil the Sudan government, right? The more international opposition to theevil people in Khartoum, right?"
But Ismail says, "Countries, activists, regional blocs, the United Nations,the African Union ? all base their response to the tragedy on the numbers ofpeople that have died. The death toll has consequences for everything ? whethernumbers of peacekeepers sent to the area, funds donated, or whatever."
The activist says he has "no reason" to disagree with official UN estimatesthat 300,000 people have so far lost their lives, and about two and a halfmillion have been displaced, as a result of the conflict in Darfur.
Dr. Eltigani Salah Fidail, Sudan's minister of international cooperation,agrees with the UN estimate on the number of people forced from their homes asa result of the violence.
"Those who are in (refugee) camps are about 625,000," he states. "But thereare (also) those who are affected by the war, who are not in the camps. Thetotal of the displaced and the affected goes up to (about) two million."
But El-Tahir El-Faki, a senior official of the JointEquality Movement (JEM), one of the main rebel groups fighting Khartoum'sforces in Darfur, says these figures are too low. "It's three and a halfmillion Darfurians who have been displaced. And the number of refugees in Chadis half a million. This is a catastrophe beyond imagination."
When Fidail is asked how many people have died in Darfur, he comments:"There is no body count (possible) in Darfur; nobody can say exactly what isthe number?."
Tothis, Dr. Gerard Prunier, an internationally respected political consultant onEast African affairs based in Addis Ababa who has done extensive research onSudan, responds, "The Sudan government doesn't want a mortality study onDarfur, for obvious reasons. It's still pretending there were only 10,000(people killed in Darfur)."
Ina statement made earlier this year, President al-Bashir reiterated thatinternational estimates of people killed in Darfur were "exaggerated" and thatonly 10,000 had died.
El-Faki says his movement's estimate is that the UN is"more or less correct" that 300,000 people have lost their lives as a result ofthe conflict in Darfur. But he adds, "Even if what al-Bashir has said, thatonly 10,000 have been killed, is true?. For a president of a state to come outlike that and say 10,000 people killed. My God. The West would have gone to awar if only one person has been inadvertently killed."
El-Fakisays according to international law, even the killing of a "few hundred"members of a particular ethnic group can be defined as genocide, and that it'stherefore "fair" for Mr. al-Bashir to eventually appear in the dock before theICC judges in The Hague.
Prunier,though, says most estimates of a death toll in Darfur are unreliable.
"The last serious study that was done was in October 2004. So we can onlywork with the crude mortality rates (available) from the refugee camps?."