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?Water is the primary medium through which people in Africa will experience climate change impacts. By 2020, it is estimated that (up to) 250 million Africans will be exposed to increased water stress,? writes South Africa-based scientist Dr. Mary Galvin in a recent analysis of the effects of hotter weather on Africa?s water supplies.
According to leading climatologists, large parts of Africa could warm by as much as four degrees C by 2100. But an increase of just one degree C will have ?terrible? consequences for the continent?s water sources and the people who rely on them to survive, said Kenyan ecological economist, Dr. Kevin Chika Urama.
Scientists say the world is warming because mainly industrial nations have for a long time pumped harmful emissions, such as carbon from coal burning for energy, into the earth?s atmosphere.
Urama is co-author of an internationally acclaimed paper that has examined the effects of climate change on water in Africa. He concluded that the region?s water sources will face, and in fact are already facing, a ?multitude? of challenges because of the phenomenon. These include intense droughts and floods, the drying up of rivers and lakes that have sustained life for centuries, associated ?wars? for scarce water and huge increases in the numbers of ?water refugees.?
Urama said increasingly strange weather patterns are already causing havoc across Africa. He recalled a visit to Nigeria in mid-October, which is usually a dry period for that country. But heavy rain, said the economist, had washed away crops and flooded cities and towns.
Taryn Pereira, an environmentalist with South Africa?s Environmental Monitoring Group, is researching changing weather systems in Africa. She said areas accustomed to regular rainfall are now suffering prolonged droughts.
Pereira highlighted the example of South Africa?s Southern Caperegion, which up until recent years experienced regular rainfall year round. ?That area has just had the lowest rainfall in 130 years of recording rainfall,? she said. ?Entire districts and towns ran out of water. People were sharing water with livestock.?
Extreme variability in weather will be more prevalent in Africa in the near future, Urama said, resulting in widespread water scarcity. ?We?re seeing how much carnage that is causing at the moment in Somalia and Kenya,? he pointed out.
The water resource expert predicted that future droughts will be worse than ever before, especially in areas that are traditionally dry, such as the Horn of Africa.
Zambian environmental engineer Alex Simalabwi agreed. ?With the increase in temperatures, some regions are going to become much drier, such as in North Africa along the Sahara desert,? he said. ?For southern Africa, the areas around the Kalahari desert and going down to the west coast in Namibia are going to become much, much drier.?
Simalabwi is director of the Global Water Partnership?s water, climate and development program. The organization is based in Stockholm and advocates for a ?water secure world.
As an advisor to several African governments, Simalabwi emphasizes ?intergovernmental protection? of Africa?s 64 river and lake basins. He said if these aren?t properly managed and if states don?t use them responsibly and put aside ?narrow self interests? to cooperate to share the water, the consequences for the entire continent are ?myriad? and ?horrible.?
The scientist explained, ?These basins are shared by various countries. The economic development of Africa is dependent on these water sources.
But according to many environmental projections, climate change is already harming the basins, such as Lake Victoria, which is shared by Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
Urama said flows from the thousands of streams that feed the world?s largest tropical lake have dwindled in recent years because of factors including hotter and drier weather.
The United Nations Environment Program has estimated that 30 million people rely directly on Lake Victoria for their survival, with millions more indirectly dependent on it for water and food. It?s one of the biggest inland fisheries in the world.
But Urama said, ?Lake Victoria is very prone to climate change impacts because it has a large surface area compared with its volume. It?s shallow, so this means that higher temperatures will mean much more water evaporating from it.?
He said the higher temperatures, combined with over-fishing, are causing the ?slow disappearance? of the lake?s most important commercial fish species, the Nile Perch.