Throughout the Arab Spring, the international community has been forced more than once to grapple with perhaps the most challenging policy dilemma of all: At what point should outsiders intervene in a country?s internal conflict and, more specifically, what does it take to bring down a determined dictator?
Tunisia?s Zin al Abbeddine Ben Ali folded his cards early in the game. Egypt?s Hosni Mubarak was more stubborn but was gone in a matter of weeks. Libya?s Muammar Gadhafi has not been so cooperative with his critics.The resulting NATO-led military intervention has not only failed in its mission to pry Libya out of Gadhafi?s clutches, but, say analysts, exposed Western shortsightedness and shortcomings.
Now the international community is up against another tenacious leader - Syria?s Bashar al-Assad. As his bloody crackdown on protesters continues into Ramadan, Syrians are becoming more vocal in their pleas for Western support. Nearly every player in the West agrees that something must be done. But what?
Hours of debate between members of the U.N. Security Council this week failed to reach agreement on a resolution first proposed in May. Instead, the Council adopted a condemning ?widespread violations of human rights and the use of force against civilians by the Syrian authorities.? The statement also calls for responsible parties to be held accountable, but it stops short of imposing sanctions or making any other demands - such as referring Assad to the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity ? a move some member states had been pushing for.
Mohamed Alabdullah, the U.S. spokesman for the (LCC), a coalition of grassroots activists in Syria, says he is disappointed the Security Council could not come up with a tough resolution. ?The statement is good,? he said, ?but it?s considered as a lame action, and the government in Syria, they interpret such a lame statement as a green light to continue killing people - ?Now we can kill as much as we want."
Alabdullah had harsh words for Russia, the most vocal opponent to a resolution: ?Russia is helping in the killing of Syrians.?
It is chiefly the Russians who have blocked European efforts to impose stricter sanctions, says Mona Yacoubian, Special Adviser at the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention and Director of the Lebanon Working Group at the Washington, D.C.-based (USIP). However, as the level of violence increased this week, she believes that Russia may gradually relent.
?The Russians are beginning to issue some statements indicating their displeasure with what?s happening in Syria,? Yacoubian says, ?and I think what will be important is more behind-the-scenes diplomacy to assure the Russians that we?re not seeking to undertake another NATO engagement at this time in Syria, but rather that we?re looking for more intensive diplomatic and economic pressure to be placed on the regime in Damascus.?
Another question is why have neighboring Arab countries been reluctant to speak out.
?I think the fear is that Syria would descend into all-out chaos and sectarian conflict,? says Yacoubian. ?It?s not a fully unfounded fear. On the contrary, we?re seeing already some disturbing indications that there may be the beginnings of that. But that has certainly served as a check on people pushing harder against the Syrian regime.?
For a second time, the Syrian city of Hama has become a flashpoint of dissent against a government led by a member of the Assad family.
Yacoubian concedes that Turkey has issued some fairly strong statements warning the Assad regime against what it calls another massacre in Hama,? such as that which was launched in 1982 by Bashar al-Assad?s father, Hafez.
The Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Conference have been conspicuously absent from debate. ?Unfortunately, the silence of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Conference is hurting us, because we expected them to support us in our cause for freedom,? said Radwan Ziadeh, founder of the (DCHRS). ?But that?s because, as we know, the overwhelming [number] of these countries are not democratic. This is why we don?t expect much from them.?
According to the International Monetary Fund and other official sources, oil sales account for around one-third of Syria?s revenue; taxes and tourism revenue make up the rest. Needless to say, Syria is not hosting many vacationers this summer, and the uprising is costing Syria a small fortune, says leading Syrian dissident Ausama Monajed.
?The regime needs money to pay for the thugs, to pay for the increase of wages they announced for public sector workers, and the reserves of the banks are just going down further and further,? he said.