In this theory, Kepler supposed that whilst the centre of the epicycle was moving round a circular deferent according to the law of the planets' distances (or areas) the planet itself moved equably in the epicycle, with the mean angular velocity of its centre in the deferent. In consequence of this supposition, since at D, when the planet is at A the aphelion, the motion in the deferent is less than the mean motion, the planet will have advanced through an angle BEP greater than BEF or BSA, through which the centre of the epicycle has moved; and consequently, the path will lie everywhere within the circle A_a_, except at the apsides. Here was a new train of laborious calculations to undergo for the purpose of drawing the curve AP_a_ according to this law, and of measuring the area of any part of it. After a variety of fruitless attempts, for this curve is one of singular complexity, he was reduced, as a last resource, to suppose it insensibly different from an ellipse on the same principal axes, as an approximate means of estimating its area. Not content even with the results so obtained, and not being able to see very clearly what might be the effect of his alteration in substituting the ellipse for the oval, and in other simplifications introduced by him, he had courage enough to obtain the sums of the 360 distances by direct calculation, as he had done in the old circular theory.
In the preface to his book he had spoken of his labours under the allegory of a war carried on by him against the planet; and when exulting in the early prospects of success this calculation seemed to offer, he did not omit once more to warn his readers, in his peculiar strain, that this exultation was premature.
"Allow me, gentle reader, to enjoy so splendid a triumph for one little day (I mean through the five next chapters), meantime be all rumours suppressed of new rebellion, that our preparations may not perish, yielding us no delight. Hereafter if anything shall come to pass, we will go through it in its own time and season; now let us be merry, as then we will be bold and vigorous." At the time foretold, that is to say, at the end of the five merry chapters, the bad news could no longer be kept a secret. It is announced in the following bulletin:--"While thus triumphing over Mars, and preparing for him, as for one altogether vanquished, tabular prisons, and equated eccentric fetters, it is buzzed here and there that the victory is vain, and that the war is raging anew as violently as before. For the enemy, left at home a despised captive, has burst all the chains of the equations, and broken forth of the prisons of the tables. For no method of geometrically administering the theory of the 45th chapter was able to come near the accuracy of approximation of the vicarious theory of the 16th chapter, which gave me true equations derived from false principles. Skirmishers, disposed all round the circuit of the excentric, (I mean the true distances,) routed my forces of physical causes levied out of the 45th chapter, and shaking off the yoke, regained their liberty. And now there was little to prevent the fugitive enemy from effecting a junction with his rebellious supporters, and reducing me to despair, had I not suddenly sent into the field a reserve of new physical reasonings on the rout and dispersion of the veterans, and diligently followed, without allowing him the slightest respite, in the direction in which he had broken out."