Such papers might be of use, gathering together in a single document all pertinent facts. In most tactical situations, the situation would have obsolesced before the author of the estimate had finished his document. In strategic situations, it could not normally be made specific enough to be practical--at the operational level--without becoming hopelessly unwieldy. Each skill represented in the estimate does prepare other reports, and the practice of most modern armies indicates that it is better to conduct routine propaganda planning, supervision, and appreciation through liaison than to prepare elaborate documents gathering together the multifarious factors which actually affect Psychological Warfare.
In most American Psychological Warfare facilities--especially in the theaters--the estimate of the situation consisted of a brief résumé of home propaganda by the enemy (taken directly from propaganda analysis), comment on the audience by appropriate representatives from the State Department or other Federal agencies, and discussion of the audience by some kind of Psychological Warfare operations-planning and intelligence board. Some of the most valuable suggestions came from persons not concerned with propaganda--such as target-intelligence people who could anticipate enemy civilian or military shortages, or economic-warfare people who suggested vexations which the enemy listener was probably experiencing.
=The Question of Choice.= An estimate of a combat situation is something like a diagnosis and prognosis in medicine. The estimate sets forth the situation, presenting the difficulties to be faced and the general range of pertinent fact, all in orderly array, like a systematic diagnosis. The plans are then drawn up in the light of the estimate; they are limited by the harsh, immediate facts of the situation; they resemble a doctor's prognosis, which may have room for several choices, but which does not open the way to speculative, creative action. Psychological Warfare situations are usually fluid, save at times of specific tactical emergency (the appeal to an enemy unit, when it is surrounded, to surrender; pre-invasion propaganda for specific points).
Therefore the psychological estimate should not be presented as a propaganda-_versus_-propaganda analysis; if it does, it will end as an unproductive and meaningless duel between the propagandists on the two sides. Nor should the estimate pretend to present choices with the pretense that these choices are definitely prescribed by the situation itself. In any field, an expert can hoax or befuddle a layman. A Psychological Warfare officer should present choices for what they really are--options open to him and his staff as creative writers. Policy issues, in specific cases, can be answered _yes_ or _no_. This is not true of propaganda as a whole. The task of the propagandist is to create something which will arouse attention, will induce attitudes, and will eventually lead to action. It is a task of permanent offense. Its variations are as infinitely diverse as the imaginations of mankind can make them.