Reliable electricity is coming to more of Sub-Saharan Africa. In this photo, a student studies in Zambia. Photo by Flickr user SolarAid Photos. CC-BY-NC-SA 2.0 This post by Tom Jackson was originally published on Ensia.com, a magazine that highlights international environmental solutions in action, and is republished here as part of a content-sharing agreement. In South Africa, major cities are subject to regular power outages as electric utility Eskom periodically shuts down parts of its distribution system to take the pressure off the aging national grid. Whole areas of Cape Town and Johannesburg are without power for hours at a time, a “last resort” Eskom is forced to resort to on a regular basis. In Nigeria, the country’s biggest wireless service provider, MTN, has said it may have to shut down its services temporarily due to a shortage of diesel, with electricity production at an all-time low. Chronic shortages of power such as these affect the whole of sub-Saharan Africa. Almost 620 million people — 60 percent of the region’s population — lack access to electricity, according to the African Development Bank. Even those who in theory have access face very high prices for insufficient and unreliable supplies. Management consulting firm McKinsey goes so far as to say the region is “starved” of electricity. This lack of power matters: Countries with electrification rates of less than 80 percent consistently have a lower per-capita gross domestic product than other countries, and more power is crucial if Africa is to meet basic development goals. But how the situation improves is important, too. Should electrification focus on off-grid or on-grid solutions? Should it prioritize fossil fuels or renewables? What is the appropriate role for governments, regional entities, the private sector and community initiatives? How these questions are answered will play a big role in the long-term sustainability of the region’s emerging power infrastructure as well as — thanks to implications for fossil fuel use — the well-being of our entire planet. It also will help determine the extent to which sub-Saharan African nations can meet the greenhouse gas targets they set for themselves as part of the United Nations climate negotiations process. Southern Africa leads the way in the region in terms of installed grid-based capacity with 58 gigawatts, though 46 GW of that is in South Africa. West Africa has 20 GW, East Africa has 8.1GW and Central Africa has 4GW — compared with 80GW in the United Kingdom and 1,060 GW in the United States. This lack of grid capacity plays a big part in the region’s electricity shortage. Graphic by Ensia Obtaining access to electricity for rural sub-Saharan Africans not currently connected to these grids will require decentralized solutions. According to the International Energy Agency, 315 million people in rural areas will gain access to electricity by 2040 — 220 million of these through off-grid and mini-grid solutions, which typically involve producing electricity locally using diesel generators or renewables. Uvie Ugono, chief executive officer and co-founder of Solynta Energy, which installs solar power kiosks in Nigeria and Ghana, says decentralization is “absolutely the way to go” with the African energy supply, the “only viable alternative” given how poor and inefficient grid infrastructure is. “It will make trillions of dollars of investment to get [grid infrastructure] up to scratch, with sufficient power generation to meet the needs of the continent,” he says. “Added to that is the terrible state of the transmission infrastructure, which is also not fit for purpose. It would be far easier to simply rebuild the entire infrastructure … than to attempt to repair and increase its capacity.” “A grid system remains the first best option. Decentralized solutions are really a second-best option in the absence of the former. The distinction is crucial.” — Grant McDermott Grant McDermott, a research scholar at the Norwegian School of Economics, sees the situation a little differently. Large, centralized grids still constitute the most efficient and cost-effective way of delivering electricity in modern economies, he says. Although deficient grid networks have constrained economic growth in many developing countries, that doesn’t mean “the decentralized alternative offers an intrinsically superior solution,” he says. “A grid system remains the first best option. Decentralized solutions are really a second-best option in the absence of the former. The distinction is crucial.” Similar debates swirl around fossil fuels and renewables. For all the talk of renewables, fossil fuels will remain vital. Where power comes from today varies substantially from one country to another.