Patrick Hayward Caddell (May 19, 1950 – February 16, 2019) was an American public opinion pollster and a political film consultant who served in the Carter administration. He worked for Democratic presidential candidates George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980, Gary Hart in 1984 (primary), Walter Mondale in 1984 (general election), Joe Biden in 1988, and Jerry Brown in 1992. He also worked for Mario Cuomo, Bob Graham, Michael Dukakis, Paul Simon, Ted Kennedy, Harold Washington, Andrew Romanoff and Donald Trump.
Early life
Patrick Hayward Caddell was born into an Irish Catholic family in Rock Hill, South Carolina, the son of Newton Pascal Caddell (1923–1989), a U.S. Coast Guard officer, and Janie Burns Caddell (1922–1997). He spent most of his childhood in various base towns, such as Falmouth, Massachusetts, and was inspired by the Kennedys.
While attending Bishop Kenny High School in Jacksonville, Florida (where he was president of the student body and member of the National Honor Society), he developed a model to project election winners and was hired by Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, Frederick H. Schultz. In his senior year at Harvard, he borrowed $25,000 from Schultz and started a polling firm, Cambridge Survey Research, with two classmates, John Gorman (1950–2008) and Daniel Porter (1950–1973). In the fall of 1971, Gary Hart, the campaign manager for the George McGovern 1972 presidential campaign, hired Caddell's firm to conduct polls in New Hampshire, where he worked closely with McGovern's aide Frank Mankiewicz, and Caddell began pitching his "alienated voters" theory. After Harvard informed him that he would not graduate without passing a swimming test, Caddell hastily arranged a swimming test in a California hotel pool. Gonzo journalist Hunter S. Thompson was his coach and renowned political journalist Theodore H. White, who was a member of the Harvard Board of Overseers, served as the judge. Caddell graduated from Harvard University in 1972.
In July 1973, Daniel Porter and his girlfriend Susan Petz were murdered on a camping trip at Adirondack Park by serial killer Robert Garrow. After police discovered Porter's car, Caddell came to Adirondack Park to join the search and he was the one who discovered Porter's body in the woods. Due to the fact that, as business partners, Caddell and Porter had taken life insurance policies on each other, Caddell was initially considered a suspect. During the Watergate hearings, it was revealed that both Caddell and Porter were on President Richard Nixon's enemies list. They were the youngest people on the list. Consequently, Senator Ted Kennedy became concerned Caddell was being falsely accused for political reasons and sent two of his own investigators to Warren County, New York. After Garrow committed another murder on July 29, 1973, it became obvious to police that he was the perpetrator of the Porter-Petz murders and Caddell was cleared.
Career
Jimmy Carter 1976 presidential campaign and "malaise" speech
Caddell persuaded Carter to focus in 1976 on the "trust factor", rather than divisive political issues in the 1976 campaign, a strategy which led, narrowly, to victory. The Arkansas political scientist and pollster Jim Ranchino declared the then 26-year-old Caddell "the best pollster in the business". After Carter was elected president, Caddell purchased a gold Mercedes. He and White House Communications Director, Gerald Rafshoon, rented a Georgetown house (known as "R Street Beach") from Miss America 1951, Yolande Fox. He escorted actress Lauren Bacall to Carter's inauguration ball. Actor Warren Beatty introduced him to Christie Hefner, the daughter of Playboy magazine founder Hugh Hefner. Dotty Lynch worked for him from 1973 to 1979.
According to researchers, Caddell had wide influence and access in the Carter White House, and enjoyed close relationships with both President Carter and the first lady, Rosalynn Carter. He was the chief advocate of what later became known as Carter's "malaise speech". The speech was initially well received, but Carter soon fired most of his cabinet and his popularity suffered. In 1987, Carter's White House Press Secretary, Jody Powell, stated that the cabinet firings were not Caddell's idea, but Hamilton Jordan's.