Iran and major world powers have reached a long-sought deal to scale back Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for relaxing the sanctions that have devastated its economy. Reactions to the deal vary wildly. Some say the agreement will prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb and will reintegrate it into the global community. Others warn it will leave Tehran as a nuclear threshold state and could spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
VOA's William Gallo spoke with analysts who provided three different perspectives on the deal.
Trita Parsi is the founder and president of the National Iranian American Council and author of “A Single Roll of the Dice – Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran.”
A: This is absolutely historic, and it does show that diplomacy can achieve so much more than having a militant foreign policy. I think President Obama deserves an incredible amount of credit, mindful of the fact that he pursued this path of diplomacy in spite of the conventional wisdom in Washington, which said essentially that diplomacy doesn't work, that you only have to use force or coercive measures, and by the way the Iranians would never be interested in striking a deal anyway.
A: I think because the political and geopolitical interests are aligned in a very compatible way right now. And the fact that the deal and the diplomacy that has produced it actually has assured that everyone gets something out of this deal. There's a win for every side in this arrangement and as a result, they would like to continue to enjoy the deal because they are gaining something.
A: Well, based on the opinion polls that have been made, as well as the public's reaction to the framework agreement reached in April, they clearly backed it, are going to be absolutely overjoyed, and I think we're going to see some very interesting images of celebration on the streets of Iran. The people will obviously be very anxious to see the sanctions lifted because they have suffered tremendously under these sanctions, combined with the incompetency and mismanagement of the Iranian government itself.
A: As things are looking right now, the deal and the president are in a good position. But we have 60 days of review. There's going to be a lot of arguments, a lot of political interests. This is all coinciding with the Republican [political campaign for next year's presidential election], which has made this more politicized than it otherwise would have been. And there may also be developments in the region that may complicate matters. So in that sense, it is not a done deal. The president will have to work very very hard to get this through Congress.
A: I don't think so. I think the probability that this will be transformational is quite significant. Now it will not transform U.S.-Iran relations into an alliance or partnership, but it will transform it into something very different from the institutionalized enmity that we are seeing.
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Tom Wilson is resident associate fellow at the Center for the New Middle East at The Henry Jackson Society.
A: I think if it's close to what was outlined in the framework agreement in April, this is going to be a pretty bad deal. In the best-case scenario, it will leave Iran as a nuclear threshold state for the next 10 years, but after the restrictions in the framework will begin to be lifted, Iran could advance even further toward nuclear breakout. So we're looking at basically holding Iran as a threshold state, which is going to be something very difficult for Iran's neighbors to live with.
A: Inspections are absolutely crucial, because Obama spoke about Iran having about a one-year breakout time under the terms of the agreement. Which means if there is a breach, you need to know straightaway, so that the West can take some kind of action. But as it stands, Iran has pushed back very hard against the idea that there will be inspections of military sites, which is problematic because it's the military dimension of the nuclear program that we're so concerned about. Rumor has it that what's been agreed is that there will be some military inspections, but that Iran will be able to challenge this. What we have to remember is that Iran is a large country, and in the past it's been able to conceal large parts of its nuclear infrastructure quite successfully. So the inspections issue is something we should be very very concerned about.