Greenhouse gas emissions by China are the largest of any country in the world both in production and consumption terms, and stem mainly from coal burning in China, including coal-fired power stations, coal mining, and blast furnaces producing iron and steel. When measuring production-based emissions, China emitted over 14 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2eq of greenhouse gases in 2019, 27% of the world total. When measuring in consumption-based terms, which adds emissions associated with imported goods and extracts those associated with exported goods, China accounts for 13 gigatonnes (Gt) or 25% of global emissions.
Despite having the largest emissions in the world, China's large population means its per person emissions have remained considerably lower than those in the developed world. This corresponds to over 10.1 tonnes CO2eq emitted per person each year, slightly over the world average and the EU average but significantly lower than the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the United States, with its 17.6 tonnes per person. Accounting for historic emissions, OECD countries produced four times more CO2 in cumulative emissions than China, due to developed countries' early start in industrialization. Overall, China is a net importer of greenhouse emissions.
The targets laid out in China's nationally determined contribution in 2016 will likely be met, but are not enough to properly combat global warming. China has committed to peak emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2060. In order to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C coal plants in China without carbon capture must be phased out by 2045. China continues to build coal-fired power stations in 2020 and promised to "phase down" coal use from 2026. According to various analysis, China is estimated to overachieve its renewable energy capacity and emission reduction goals early, but long-term plans are still required to combat the global climate change and meeting the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets.
Greenhouse gas sources
Since 2006, China has been the world's largest emitter of annually. According to estimates provided by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, China's carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 amounted to 6.2 billion tons, and the United States' co-production in the same year was 5.8 billion tons. In 2006, China's carbon dioxide emissions were 8 percent higher than America's, the agency said. The U.S. emitted 2% more carbon dioxide in 2005 than China. China ratified the Kyoto Protocol as a non-Annex B party without binding targets, and ratified the Paris Agreement to fight climate change. As the world's largest coal producer and consumer country, China worked hard to change energy structure and experienced a decrease in coal consumption since 2013 to 2016. However, China, the United States and India, the three biggest coal users, have increased coal mining in 2017. The Chinese government has implemented several policies to control coal consumption, and boosted the usage of natural gas and electricity . Looking ahead, the construction and manufacturing industries of China will give way to the service industry, and the Chinese government will not set a higher goal for economic growth in 2018; thus coal consumption may not experience continuous growth in the next few years.
In 2019 China is estimated to have emitted 27% of world GhG, followed by the US with 11%, then India with 6.6%.
China is implementing some policies to mitigate the bad effects of climate change, most of which aim to constrain coal consumption. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of China set goals and committed to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 in the latest, and increase the use of non-fossil fuel energy carriers, taking up 20% of the total primary energy supply. If China successfully reached NDC's targets, the GHG emissions level would be 12.8–14.3 Gte in 2030, reducing 64% to 70% of emission intensity below 2005 levels. China has surpassed solar deployment and wind energy deployment targets for 2020.
Energy production
Power is estimated as the largest emitter, with 27% of greenhouse gases produced in 2020 generated by the power sector. Most electricity in China comes from coal, which accounted for 65% of the electricity generation mix in 2019. Electricity generation by renewables has been increasing, with the construction of wind and solar plants doubling from 2019 to 2020.
According to a major 2020 study by Energy Foundation China, in order to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C, coal plants without carbon capture must be phased out by 2045.
Transport was estimated in 2021 to be less than 10% of the country's emissions but growing.