Turkey uses more electricity per person than the global average, but less than the European average, with demand peaking in summer due to air conditioning. Most electricity is generated from coal, gas and hydropower, with hydroelectricity from the east transmitted to big cities in the west. Electricity prices are state-controlled, but wholesale prices are heavily influenced by the cost of imported gas.
Each year, about 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity is used, which is almost a quarter of the total energy used in Turkey. On average, about four hundred grams of carbon dioxide is emitted per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated (400 gCO2/kWh); this carbon intensity is slightly less than the global average. As there is 100 GW of generating capacity, far more electricity could be produced. Although only a tiny proportion is exported; consumption is forecast to increase, and there are plans for more exports during the 2020s.
Turkey's coal-fired power stations are the largest source of the country's greenhouse-gas emissions. Many brown coal power stations are subsidized, which increases air pollution. Imports of gas, mostly for Turkey's power stations, are one of the main expenses for the country. In winter, electricity generation is vulnerable to reductions in the gas supply from other countries. Solar and wind power are now the cheapest generators of electricity, and more of both are being built. If enough solar and wind power is built, the country's hydroelectric plants should be enough to cover windless cloudy weeks. Renewables generate a third of the country's electricity, and academics have suggested that the target of 32% renewable energy by 2030 be increased to 50%, and that coal power should be phased out by the mid-2030s. Increased use of electric vehicles is expected to increase electricity demand.
Consumption
Each year, about 300 TWh of electricity is used in Turkey: this supplies almost a quarter of the total final energy demand, the rest being from coal, oil and gas. Due to air conditioning demand peaks in summer: with August highest (32 TWh in 2021) and February typically lowest (24 TWh in 2021). Total national consumption divided by the population is under 4,000 kWh a year, much below the average of around 10,000 kWh a year for other OECD countries in Europe, but half as much again as the global average. Shares of energy usage in 2019 totaled 45% for industry, 29% for services and 21% for households. Consumption is forecast to increase.
, household electricity consumption is estimated to average 230 kWh a month and is dominated by refrigerators, followed by televisions then washing machines. Space heating and electric vehicles have the biggest potential for demand side response.
Between 2019 and 2024, Turkey plans to invest US$11 billion into energy efficiency; and by 2035 replace 80% of electricity meters with smart meters. Electricity's share of energy consumption is expected to increase, from 22% in 2019 to perhaps 28% in 2040, partly due to electrification of road transport.
Demand forecasts
Demand forecasting is important, because constructing too much electricity generation capacity can be expensive, both for government energy subsidies and private sector debt interest. Conversely, constructing too little risks delaying the health benefits of electrification, the biggest of which is cleaner air due to fossil fuel phase-out.
Distribution companies, some retail companies, and industrial zones send their demand forecasts to the Energy Ministry and the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEIAŞ) every year. TEİAŞ then publishes low, base and high 10 year forecasts, using the "DECADES" model; whereas the Energy Ministry uses the "Model for Analysis of Energy Demand".
Some official demand forecasts are overestimated, which could be due to low economic growth. In 2019 actual generation was 76% of firm capacity, and overcapacity continued into the early 2020s.
Industry
The share of electricity used in industry is expected to increase at the expense of the fossil fuel share as Turkey moves to more technology manufacturing. Less coal is being burnt for industry and oil burning remains static. One projection even shows electricity overtaking gas to become the largest industrial energy source at 30%, however more efficient lighting and industrial motors, together with policy changes supporting efficiency, could limit demand growth.