What the scientific literature in the fields of the geophysical, atmospheric, and oceanographic disciplines demonstrates is that natural climatic oscillations probably range in length from the 11-year sunspot cycle through several decades (or a human lifetime) to several hundred years. So, when our children are the new trustees of seabird colonies 20 or 40 years hence, they must interpret their data using the full range of physical as well as biological data that we can leave for them. Indeed, the information is, I believe, already available over a long enough period (since 1940 at least) to allow some speculative interpretations of what may have been happening to our seabird populations, whether or not we knew or had any evidence of it.
I have already suggested that extraterrestrial events, particularly the 11-year sunspot cycle, are increasingly believed to influence the atmosphere of this planet. The Chinese and Japanese have remarkably precise records of the northern limits of certain agricultural crops at particular times, the phenology of flowering, and the freezing of lakes. These demonstrate long-term trends in overall climate in eastern Asia that extend over hundreds of years. The climate of Japan is influenced by the high-pressure area in winter over mainland East Asia. There is evidence that severe ice conditions in the Bering Sea during the early 1970's may have been due to an eastward shifting of this high-pressure area. Again, the water mass of the Kuroshio Extension and the West Wind Drift takes several years to travel across the Pacific Ocean, and there is an established temperature variation that travels like a slow wave with it. Off Japan, the Kuroshio Current periodically develops meanders which slow the speed of the eastward flow. Cold and warm "pools" of water approach the west coast of Canada and the western United States from time to time.
Ocean currents are driven by the atmospheric motion above them, which consists of several convective cells between the equator and each pole. The outcome is zonal winds, such as the trade winds and the westerlies. However, as the influence of the sun on the atmosphere is variable, the input of heat and the extent of the major high-pressure areas vary, as does the path of the jet stream. The recent droughts in northern Africa and unusually heavy rains in Australia are both linked to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the atmosphere and a "corrugation" of the wind circulation from a more normal zonal (latitudinal) path. These shifts in the atmospheric circulation are almost certainly transmitted also to the ocean currents and the marine ecosystem, with the influence being felt for a long period of years.