This article was written by Cristian Ascencio and published in CONNECTAS on March 20, 2024. An edited version is republished in Global Voices under a media partnership. The president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, does not like to compete. When he sees an electoral threat, he imposes sanctions or new rules on its adversaries. He doesn't let go of the ball of power. It even seems like he would rather puncture it than risk losing the match. Faced with this scenario, there is an opposition that has historically struggled uniting and standing up to the president who was elected for the first time in 2013, and is a presidential candidate for the third consecutive time. But last year a turning point seemed to come with the results of the primaries elections of the Unitary Platform of Venezuela, which brings together opposition parties: María Corina Machado, a conservative leader and one of the most radical anti-Chavistas, obtained 92 percent of the votes in the primaries (just over three million votes), in historic elections due to their high participation. The hope did not last long, in the face of the reaction of two entities controlled by Chavismo, like all the state powers in the country. Not only did the National Electoral Council ignore the results of the primaries, but the Supreme Court confirmed Machado's disqualification from running for public office for 15 years, as she is accused of supporting sanctions against Venezuela and — supposedly — having been part of the ‘interim presidency’ by Juan Guaidó, during the 2019 presidential crisis. This made it clear that the Maduro regime did not mind throwing away the progress it had made with the United States through the recent Barbados agreements in negotiations with the opposition. In them, the United States demanded, among other things, guarantees for free elections. On March 25, the deadline to register candidates expired, and the Maduro government did not allow the registration of Corina Yoris, the academic chosen by María Corina Machado to assume her candidacy to face her disqualification. That is to say: these presidential elections will be the first to be held in Venezuela without an opposition candidate elected in a primary vote almost since the beginning of Chavismo. In turn, Chavismo clings to power with other strategies: it imposes a very tight electoral calendar to leave its opponents less time for action (the elections were scheduled for July 28, and not for December, the traditional date of the presidential elections), creates obstacles not raised in the law to hinder the participation of the opposition in the elections, and hinders the actions of international organizations. For example, a month ago Maduro's government expelled the office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights from Venezuela. El próximo 28 de julio, Venezuela celebrará elecciones presidenciales. ¿Está garantizada su transparencia? #OppenheimerPresenta, domingos a las 9 p.m., hora de Miami. @oppenheimera https://t.co/7RyW6dULbZ — CNN en Español (@CNNEE) March 17, 2024 On July 28, Venezuela will hold presidential elections. Is its transparency guaranteed? #OppenheimerPresents, Sundays at 9 p.m. Miami time. @oppenheimera https://t.co/7RyW6dULbZ — CNN en Español (@CNNEE) March 17, 2024 Eugenio Martínez, Venezuelan journalist, expert on elections and director of Votoscopio.com, explains that “the cost of leaving power for Maduro is very high, while the cost of remaining is very low… being very pragmatic, the Venezuelan government has learned to live with international sanctions.” Javier Corrales, professor of political science, mentions a historical example in Latin America similar to the current electoral crisis. In 1973 the Argentine military junta was willing to allow democratic elections, but on the condition that General Juan Domingo Perón could not run. Then the general decided to support Héctor Cámpora and in fact, the motto of that campaign was “Cámpora to the government, Perón to power.” And they actually won and the replacement was only two months in office. He called for new elections, where this time Perón was able to register, and of course triumphed. And what did María Corina Machado say? On the night of March 17, she stated on social media that the regime, by disqualifying her, wants, as it has already done, to compete against false opposition candidates. “This reaction is a sign of weakness… They lost their social base and their blackmail mechanisms no longer work,” she stressed. “They are not going to remove us from this electoral route… a hand won is not negotiated,” she said almost at the end of the video, a few days before it was known that they would not allow Yoris’ registration.