There is no definitive date for the Polynesian discovery of Hawaii. However, high-precision radiocarbon dating in Hawaii using chronometric hygiene analysis, and taxonomic identification selection of samples, puts the initial such settlement of the Hawaiian Islands sometime between 1219 and 1266 A.D., originating from earlier settlements first established in the Society Islands around 1025 to 1120 A.D., and in the Marquesas Islands sometime between 1100 and 1200 A.D.
Ancient Hawaiian population
There is still controversy about how many Native Hawaiians were living on the islands when Captain James Cook arrived in 1778. The frequently hypothesized model is that population growth was constant until James Cook's arrival, and was then halted by disease, followed by a rapid decrease. This theory relies on a hypothetical settlement date that radiocarbon dating in Hawaii has since refuted, as well as linear growth on the islands. Nevertheless, this theory is still used to support an estimate of between 800,000 and 1,000,000 people in 1778.
The constant-population-growth theory of Hawaii has scant support from the archaeological data and is contradicted by paleo-environmental evidence and radiocarbon dating of historical sites. Accordingly the evidence indicates a model of arrested population growth, especially as a consequence of island life. This theory finds corroboration in archaeological censuses of abandoned habitation sites on leeward (southern and western) Hawai'i island and Kaho'olawe Island which indicate that population levels reached a peak before Cook's arrival. The arrested-growth model fits well with an estimated pre-contact-era population of between 200,000 and 250,000, derived primarily from the study of historical records.Population estimates based on an initial discovery and settlement of Hawaii in around 1150 AD, a proposed growth rate at the highest in the world and reliance on the paleo-environmental evidence of early human impact on the land completely contradict the constant-population-growth theory. Instead the estimated population curve can be divided into three sections: pre-settlement where there were no people, the initial settlement growth phase of approximately 100 people around 1150 AD to the population peak in 1450 of approximately 150,000 people and third phase between 1450 and 1778, which reflected a relatively stable population where apparent declines were followed by periods of growth.
Simply and briefly, as the population grew so did their agricultural imprint (forest clearing by burning) and building of heiau at those sites, as well as the decline of plants. The paleo-environmental data showed that during 1450-1778 the pace of construction of heiau slowed dramatically, as did the clearing of agricultural land. Accordingly the estimated population in 1778 around the time of Cook's arrival was between 110,000 and 150,000.
Eastern contact
Pre-Western contact syphilis
James Cook may not have been the first outsider to visit Hawaii. Diseases to which Hawaiians lacked immunity may well have already been spread. Testing of a young woman's bones buried in O'ahu, radiocarbon dated to sometime between 1422 AD and 1664, indicated that she had congenital syphilis, a disease that can leave a variety of distinctive marks on bone. It has long been surmised that syphilis originated in the American Hemisphere and was imported to Europe when Europeans returned from Columbus's first voyage in 1494, specifically to Naples, Italy, where it was recorded in Europe. That postulation is an established part of the Columbian exchange. However the supposition of an American origin has recently been challenged and is being further evaluated by historians of disease, who argue that its presence in Europe may not have been detected previously. Another possible explanation for syphilis in the pre-Cook era finds reference to traditional Hawaiian accounts of foreign shipwrecks as well as the presence of metal blades seen by James Cook upon landing in Kaua'i, later presumed to be from Japanese sailors. Syphilis was introduced to Japan around 1512 by mariners who had contracted the disease while in China. By 1600 approximately 39.4% of Japanese men had contracted syphilis.