As concerns grow of a possible nuclear conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine, there are hopes China could defuse the crisis.
But Russia’s most influential ally may not have the desire or the ability to help, according to analysts.
“If any power has influence over Putin, it is China,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS University of London’s China Institute.
The problem, according to Tsang, is that “foreign policy under [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] is guided by the China-first — not the world first — principle,” meaning Beijing will be weighing the advantages or disadvantages of getting involved.
China is the only permanent member of the United Nations Security Council that has pledged to not be the first to use nuclear weapons. It is also Russia’s biggest trade partner and arguably the country with the most political influence over Moscow.
But some analysts say Beijing has little incentive to help Washington defuse the crisis because of its anger over the Biden administration’s handling of U.S.-China relations, especially the Taiwan issue. They say U.S. weapons sales to the island that China hopes to reunify with one day, along with recent visits by high-level U.S. officials, are seen as emboldening Taiwan’s pro-independence ruling party.
“That is a critical factor, because Beijing has to think: 'What am I doing this for, given the U.S. seems relentless in introducing measures every other day to harm Chinese interests, from trade to tech, from the Taiwan issue to the Indo-Pacific,'” said Yuan Jingdong, a professor specializing in Chinese foreign policy at the University of Sydney.
And even if it wanted to, China may lack the ability to persuade Putin to end the war, some experts told VOA.
“China’s influence in the Ukraine war is very limited,” said Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Studies at eastern China’s Nanjing University.
Given that the war is going strongly against Putin, urging him to end it now would amount to asking him to accept defeat, Zhu said.
“Can China convince him? Convince him to die a political death? He won’t listen,” said Zhu.
Yuan agreed: “Putin will simply say ‘Thank you, but no thank you.’ He has to think about something more serious, including his very survival.”
China has publicly called for negotiations and a peaceful resolution.
At a meeting with Ukraine’s foreign minister on the sidelines of a U.N. Security Council session in New York last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said: “As a responsible major country and a permanent member state of the U.N. Security Council, China has always been committed to dialogue for peace, never standing on the sidelines, nor pouring oil on the flame, still less seeking selfish gains. We always stand on the side of peace and will continue to play a constructive role.”
Although Beijing’s stance on the war has been ambiguous — China has not condemned the Russian invasion and it, alongside Brazil, Gabon and India, recently abstained from a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning the Moscow-backed referendums in eastern Ukraine — Beijing has stopped short of providing Russia with political and military backing.
At a recent meeting between Putin and Xi, Putin revealed China had questions and concerns about the war.
Analysts say it’s possible Xi may have suggested ways of de-escalation in private conversations with Putin, and others speculate that China may not believe a nuclear crisis is imminent.
It's possible that China “doesn’t think Putin will use nuclear weapons because Putin is not suicidal,” Zhu said. “Putin’s personal political career will suffer a huge impact, and Russia will be downgraded into some kind of failed state."
Simon Chen, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, said the biggest worry for Beijing is Putin losing political power due to a total defeat in the war.
"It could hurt Putin’s chances of securing another term in office in the presidential election in 2024 and boost the chances of opposition democratic parties in Russia, which are close to the U.S.,” Chen said. "This is not beneficial to China and something China really doesn’t want to see. That's why Beijing wants both sides to negotiate an end to the war."
Moscow losing the war could weaken China’s strongest political ally against the U.S., said Yuan.
“Russia's complete defeat would leave China [alone] against the U.S. and its European and Asian allies and partners and will make it very difficult for China to achieve what it has set out to do,” Yuan said.