Turkish Cypriots are holding parliamentary elections Sunday in a votelikely to boost hardliners and complicate efforts to resolve thelong-running division of Cyprus.
The opposition National Unity Party is leading in opinion polls, andthe ruling Republican Turkish Party trails by a wide margin as TurkishCypriots vote in legislative elections.
The ruling party backsTurkish-Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat, who in U.N.-backed talks withthe island's majority Greek Cypriots, has promoted reunifying Cyprus asa federation of two ethnic regions. But the National Unity Party backs a two-state model rejected by Greek Cypriots.
Analysts say a strong election showing by the opposition could weaken Mr. Talat's negotiating position.
Cyprus'Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities are engaged in U.N.-sponsoredpeace talks aimed at ending the island's 35-year division. Thenegotiations, which restarted last year, have been described as the'last chance' for Cyprus peace.
But with nationalists, who wantnorthern Cyprus to remain a single state, predicted to take seats fromMehmet Ali Talat's ruling party there are concerns the peace talkscould quickly run into serious difficulties.
London School ofEconomics senior research fellow James Ker-Lindsay says whatever theoutcome at the polls, Talat will remain the chief negotiator for theTurkish Cypriots. But, he says, a weakened party in parliament maymean that his power to bargain for unity will be compromised.
"Wellit is obviously going to limit Talat's ability to act in a lot of ways,you know parliament is going to have a much greater say in all of thisand really can tie his hands," said Lindsay.
ErmanKursat, a candidate standing for the newly established PeoplesPolitical Party (HiSP) in Famagusta, like so many others, isdisillusioned with the ongoing peace talks and thinks it is time fornorth Cyprus to stand alone.
"TheGreek side people do not want us; they said in the memorandum [2005Annan Referendum] four years ago, they said no, what it means? They donot want us," he said.
Most Turkish Cypriots seemto have lost confidence a solution can be found in recent years. Andsome have bitterly complained that a promise made by the European Unionto end the isolation of north Cyprus remains unfulfilled.
Cyprusjoined the European Union as a divided island soon after theinternationally recognized south rejected a U.N. reunification plan in2004, even though the Turkish Cypriots in the north overwhelminglysupported it.
Hardline nationalists havealso complained of foreign interference in these elections, in whatthey say is an attempt to keep the ruling party in power.
Former Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash agrees.
"Thereare a lot of interferences, suggestions by the Americans, by theEuropean Union to sustain the present government," he said. "They say it is thepresent government that can make peace with the Greek Cypriot side."
Lastmonth, the Greek Cypriot president sent a clear message to Ankara thatTurkey will not be able to join the European Union unless it ends itsoccupation of the northern sector of Cyprus.
But Kursat, like many in northern Cyprus, does not think Turkey will ever enter the European Union.
"Ido not think that Turkey will get into the European Union, ever. Because the European Union communities do not want Turkey, because, youknow, Turkey is a Muslim country, the European Union is a Christiangroup," said Kursat. "I do not think so."
Morethan 161,000 voters will cast ballots with 345 candidates from sevenpolitical parties and eight independent candidates are competing forthe seats at the breakaway state's parliament.
Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when Turkey invaded the northernpart of the island in response to a military coup that was backed bythe Greek government. South Cyprus joined the European Union in 2004and the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is onlyrecognized by Turkey.