The International Criminal Court (ICC)has issued a statement denying it has decided to issue an arrest warrant forSudanese President Omar al-Bashir. Thursday, The New York Times newspaperreported the decision had been made to prosecute Mr. Bashir, saying it basedthe story on statements from court attorneys and diplomats. However, the ICCstatement said no decision had been made.
The ICC's chiefprosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, is seeking Mr. Bashir's arrest on charges ofgenocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity, stemming from the Sudanesegovernment's actions in the Darfur region. Moreno-Ocampo made the request for awarrant last year.
What would the implicationsbe if an arrest warrant were issued? Nick Grono, deputy president of theInternational Crisis Group, spoke from Brussels on what the immediate reactionmight be.
"The Sudanese governmentwill be outraged and will make it very clear that it's outraged?. The big questionis whether beyond expressing outrage it will take any concrete steps or takeany action to retaliate against those who it perceives as supporting the ICC orthreatening the security of the government," he says.
As for other countries,Grono says, "The international community, which obviously isn't a cohesivegroup, will also have to work out how it responds.? Members of the ICCobviously have an obligation to support the ICC?. The Arab League and AfricanUnion?have expressed support for Sudan on this issue. So, you're going to havea whole range of reactions. I think policymakers should be thinking about howto shape reactions when this decision comes out because it's a very importantstep forward both in terms of the ICC and what's happening in Sudan."
It could be a difficultdecision for some whether or not to support Sudan on this issue. Grono says,"These policy decisions don't get much more difficult because you have issuesof justice?. You have issues of peace and stability. And countries have toweigh up how the decision, assuming there is a decision to issue an arrestwarrant, impacts on all of those."
He expects some countries tosay such a decision risks creating further instability and violence in Sudan."You have to be a little bit careful about accepting those claims at face valuebecause it's likely if there is any further violence the Sudanese government isin control of a lot of the actors that might be in a position to commitviolence," he says.
However, Grono says theissuing of an arrest warrant for the Sudanese leader could spur the peaceprocess. "It also provides opportunities to change the dynamics of conflict inSudan?. It's been very difficult to findleverage to change the calculations of the political actors in Sudan. This maybe something that provides significant leverage," he says.
Any ICC action could be atest for the new Obama administration, Grono says. "What happens once an arrestwarrant is issued is that the UN Security Council has the power to put aprosecution on hold for 12 months. And in the past Sudan has called for thisand the African Union has called for this. So, one of the decisions that theObama administration may have to make fairly early on is whether or not itwould agree as a member of the UN Security Council to defer a prosecution ofPresident Bashir. I suspect that they won't agree any time soon to a deferral,partly because the Sudanese government hasn't really demonstrated anywillingness to do anything to promote peace in recent months."
Gronosays the Obama administration "won't be in a hurry to give a pass to theSudanese regime."