Roger Winter, former special representative of the UnitedStates to Sudan, says the Abyei violence has the potential to ?destroy? the2005 peace agreement. If this happens, he warns of loss of life on an?unprecedented? scale.
?If the government in Khartoum, through its refusal toimplement the Abyei Protocol, causes the peace to fail, the consequences notonly for Sudanese civilians generally but for the whole volatile region ?including Ethiopia, Eritrea, Uganda, Kenya, Central African Republic, Chad, andso forth ? all are threatened by what would be massive instability -potentially even the break-up of the state of Sudan.?
Winter says the previous war in southern Sudan killedabout two-and-a-half million people.
?The implications of the loss of peace by not implementingthe Abyei Protocol potentially for the civilians of Sudan are terriblydramatic,? he states.
Under the terms of the 2005 peace deal, the people ofAbyei will vote in 2011 to become part of either southern or northern Sudan. Ifthey vote to be included in the south, as expected, Winter says Khartoum willlose billions of dollars in oil revenue. A British aid worker in Abyei, PeterMoszynski, doubts whether the al-Bashir administration will allow this tohappen.
"The problem is that the SPLA is [also] not going to letgo of Abyei. So how?s this going to be resolved: Either through diplomacy orthrough force. Now they?ve already come to blows and everybody?s trying to stopthis from disintegrating any further. But there?s not that much confidence andneither side trusts each other anymore,? Moszynski says.
He?s convinced that the al-Bashir government is becomingvery uncomfortable at the prospect of the south seceding and becoming aseparate country and the north therefore losing a lot of resources. Thistension, says Moszynski, is setting the scene for more conflict ahead of the2011 referendum.
An NGO manager in Abyei, Daniel Jok Deng, says Sudan?sfuture hinges on the peaceful resolution of the parameters of the north-southborder?and by extension, who gets the oil profits.
If this happens, he says, there?s a possibility of a?brutal? border war in Sudan. In fact, maintains Deng, signs of a looming warare already ?everywhere.? Both the SPLM and Khartoum insist they?re withdrawingtheir troops from the Abyei border area, but Deng says he sees little evidenceof Khartoum pulling back its soldiers: ?Forces are still on both sides of theborder.?
SPLM spokesman Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth says his party iscommitted to peace and that Khartoum has promised likewise.
?As of now, the situation is calm in Abyei area, so thereis no troop buildup.?
Yet Gatkuoth will not dismiss the possibility of aneventual return to civil war over southern Sudan.
?Of course, [politicians] can say that we are not for warbut the situation on the ground will force the people to go to war, because thepeople of Abyei and of the whole southern Sudan were a bit disturbed by thesituation in Abyei. So it can get out of hand even if the leader is not forwar,? he says.
Moszynski sees ?little common ground? between the SPLM andKhartoum over Abyei.
Winter says there?s still time to prevent a return tofull-scale war in Sudan.
?The Bush administration must step up and make sure theinternational community is doing all it can to bring peace to all of Sudan.?
He adds that the presence of United Nations peacekeepersin Abyei must be ?reinforced with a permanent U.N. military and civilian presenceto effectively monitor the situation, accurately report conditions on theground and promote local reconciliation.?
Moszynski says there?s an urgent need for ?some kind of anagreement? that refers to all the current conflicts currently in Sudan: ?One ofthe reasons we?ve got where we have is because of the piecemeal nature of thevarious peace agreements. You had this CPA, which was predominantly for southSudan but that has separate protocols for Abyei, the Nuba Mountains, etcetera;you have an eastern Sudan agreement that?s completely separate from everythingelse; you have the whole Darfur situation that?s cut off from the CPA. Toresolve any of them you really need to resolve all of it. It?s not enough tojust sort of resolve one local difficulty and then go on to the next, becausethey?re all kind of interrelated.?
Gatkuoth acknowledges that as a result of the flare-up inAbyei, the ?future of Sudan is now at stake.? Deng says what ?really worries?him is that the incident once again ?proved that both the SPLA and the SudanArmed Forces still have the capacity to fight another long war.?