Some Somalis are demanding Ethiopiantroops leave the country and replaced by a United Nations peacekeeping forcedespite the UN secretary general's rejection of such a move. Ban Ki-Moon described deploying a UNpeacekeeping operation to Somalia as unrealistic. Herecently told the Security Council that strengthening the African Union Mission inSomalia (AMISOM) throughfinance and logistical support is the realistic option to bringing a measure ofstability to Somalia. But the Somalis contend thatthe presence of Ethiopian troops in the country is serving as a rallying cryfor Islamic terrorists to continue killing innocent civilians.Abdulraman Mahmoud Tamele is a Somali political analyst. From the capital,Mogadishu, he tells reporter Peter Clottey that Somalia will be in turmoil theday the Ethiopian troops leave.
"Firstof all, there is a strong opposition that is fighting the government. They oncecalled themselves Islamic Courts, but nowadays they are fragmented and there isAl-Shabab. And all of them have a target and that is to declare themselves asnationalists who claim Somalis have the right to discuss and to reconcile amongthemselves for Ethiopian forces to leave. They claim it is a matter ofmotivation, but it is not a reality because if they wanted to have areconciliation with the government, automatically they can discuss and they canagree with the government or something," Tamele pointed out.
He said the stability ofSomalia would be compromised if the Ethiopian forces pull out of the country.
"There would be chaos if theEthiopian troops leave. We will face new attacks and fighting and the country would be in turmoil," he said.
Tamele disagreed thatthe Islamists are using the presence of Ethiopian troops to recruit moreterrorists to destabilize the country, arguing that the Islamic terroristswould take over the country when the Ethiopian troops withdraw.
"I do not agree with thatbecause that is only one version. The Ethiopians are a very strong force andthey are in Mogadishu and Baidoa and protecting and supporting the governmentand Al-Shabab cannot have the power to destroy the government and its variousinstallations. But the day the Ethiopians leave the country, Al-Shabab willattack the presidential palace and they will capture everywhere because theyare more organized than the other terrorists," Tamele noted.
He said AL-Shabab seems tobe the only well organized terrorist group with affiliations with otherinternational terrorist organizations.
"The only well-motivatedIslamic radical group is Al-Shabab and they are very strong. So, once they(Al-Shabab) come to power they will not respect the others and they willslaughter people and dictate what they want done. So, I don't think AL-Shabahas the attitude of reconciliation with the others," he said.
Tamele said no existingmilitary force would be spared once the terrorists take over Somalia.
"When the Ethiopians leavethe country, Al- Shabab will take the power and they will destroy any othermovement including the African Union forces. Uganda and Burundi will stay onlyat the airport and the seaport. And even I don't believe they will remainthere, they will run because Al-Shabab will attack forcefully until they(Uganda and Burundi troops) leave. So, Al-Shabab is a very determined andradical organization and they have links to other international Islamicorganizations and their motivation is to rule with very strict Sharia law inthe country," Tamele pointed out.
Meanwhile, The UN Security Council last week called for enhancedmonitoring of the arms embargo in Somalia, declaring that strict enforcementwould improve security in the horn of Africa country where there has been nofunctioning central government since 1991. In a unanimously adoptedresolution, the 15-member council extended for another year the MonitoringGroup overseeing the embargo that was first put in place 16 years ago, declaredthat the situation there constituted a threat to international peace andsecurity in the region. The councildemanded that all states, particularly those in the region, refrain from anyviolation and take all steps to hold violators accountable.