?Arafat is the only leader the Palestinians have known for several decades," says physician Ziad Asali, president of the American Task Force on Palestine. "He is the founder, the George Washington, of modern-day Palestine, and he is especially revered as someone who made a singular contribution to the rebirth of Palestinian nationhood and the anticipation of statehood. Having said that and remembering his many achievements, it is clear that the Palestinians have been going through very difficult times for the last few years. And a good share of the blame has been assigned to the leadership. Although it is a mixed feeling, it?s too bad he did not live [long] enough to establish a state.?
With the passing of Mr. Arafat?s political influence, Dr. Asali says he sees some hope for the emergence of a new Palestinian leadership that is more unified than in the past.
?There will be competing parties to take over decision-making on the part of the Palestinians. This is a time for unity for them, and they are all aware of that," he says. "It has been extremely impressive to those of us who watch the situation how the Palestinians have refrained from saying or doing anything that indicates division or conflict.?
Dr. Asali also thinks that the new political reality in the Middle East may offer the Israeli government an opportunity to reassess the prospects for dialogue. And it may enable President Bush at the beginning of his second term to put greater pressure on both parties to negotiate.
?The most obvious thing is that it will take away the one card that made it possible for both the Israeli government and for the United States to say that there is no Palestinian partner,? says Mr. Asali. ?Whatever Palestinian leader emerges cannot be labeled as an unacceptable political partner, so it will have ramifications for the whole process of disengagement from Gaza. It certainly will have ramifications for the relations between the Palestinian leadership and the United States.
"There are possible attractive alternatives in the Palestinian leadership for a dialogue with the United States," he continues. "And if those elements take over, it certainly would be easier for the Palestinians to negotiate their fate with the American administration that would have influence on the Israeli partner. And I am confident that there is a level of communication between American officials in Palestine with various elements within the Palestinian leadership. This has taken place for a long time and it is taking place now.?
Aaron David Miller, a former senior State Department adviser for Arab-Israeli negotiations, has served six U.S. administrations. He is now president of Seeds of Peace, a grassroots organization that prepares Israeli and Arab teenagers with leadership skills needed to promote peace and coexistence. Mr. Miller says he believes that history?s judgment on Yasser Arafat will be a mixed one.
?On the one hand, he will receive enormous credit as the individual embodiment of Palestinian nationalism, the man who essentially put the Palestinians on the political map and brought a divided, decentralized movement into the mainstream of international politics," says Mr. Miller. "On the other hand, I think history will judge him unkindly in that he never really made the transition from revolutionary diaspora leader, capable of leading quite skillfully a divided national movement, into a position of leadership where he was able to create the foundation of good governance and smart negotiations.
?And I think emblematic of that fact is the period of July 2000 to December 2000 when, rather than putting a counter-offer on the table, which might have created follow up for negotiations with Mr. Barak at Camp David and with President Clinton, he chose to cling to the notion that Palestinians needed 100 percent,? he notes.
Aaron Miller says as a statesman, Yasser Arafat does not compare favorably with either Nelson Mandela or David Ben-Gurion, for example. ?It may well be that the circumstances confronting the Palestinian people were tougher. But leadership is leadership, and it requires vision, and it requires courage, and it sometimes requires an enormous capacity to risk. And while Mr. Arafat was willing to take that risk during the initial phases of the Oslo process, he wasn?t able and willing to do it toward the end of his life,? says Mr. Miller.
With respect to the Palestinian leader?s successor and the emergence of a Palestinian state, Mr. Miller says the future is unclear, although there are some guidelines.