When Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin was killed in an August 2023 plane crash, many analysts said his death could mark the end of the Wagner Group, the private military company he co-founded that provided thousands of Russian mercenaries for Moscow’s initiatives and other interests abroad.
But more than a year later, the picture of Russian mercenary activities has only grown more complicated, researchers say.
Before Prigozhin’s death, Wagner’s mercenaries had fought in conflicts around the world –– from Ukraine to the Middle East and Africa –– and helped Russia to spread its influence far beyond its borders.
Along the way, Wagner faced allegations of .
Then, in June 2023, Prigozhin launched an unexpected insurrection against Russian authorities over their handling of the war in Ukraine. His mercenaries captured the city of Rostov-on-Don and marched on toward Moscow. Prigozhin stood down only after the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, mediated a deal.
After such brazen insubordination, many were unsurprised when Prigozhin died in a plane crash less than two months later. But predictions that the Wagner Group’s activities would die with him have proven to be untrue.
Wagner Group fighters are still active in the Central African Republic and Mali. In other countries like Niger, it has been replaced by Africa Corps, a successor organization subordinate to Russia’s defense ministry. In other cases, different Russian militarized structures have picked up the Wagner name and symbols.
What is clear to analysts is that Russian mercenaries are not going away. If anything, the future of Russian private military companies will be "more sustainable and less spectacular" according to Jack Margolin, an independent researcher who recently published a book on the Wagner Group.
Since Prigozhin’s death, Russia has "really effectively created infrastructure and incentive structures in order to draw in former [Wagner] fighters and build this system of semi-formal forces," he told VOA.
The Wagner Group’s activities around the world have always been intertwined with Russian foreign policy, but the exact nature of that connection is a subject of debate among experts.
Margolin notes that Wagner co-founder Dmitry Utkin –– who also died in the August 2023 plane crash –– served in the special forces of Russia’s foreign intelligence agency, commonly called the GRU. Around 2014, he and Prigozhin founded the Wagner Group, which was initially small.
That same year, Wagner took part in the illegal Russian annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. Later, the mercenaries were dispatched to the pseudo-state Russia propped up in the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk.
During this period, there is ample evidence that Wagner actively cooperated with the Russian defense ministry –– in part because Ukraine intercepted Wagner conversations with Russian officers.
But when Wagner operations moved beyond Ukraine, the picture grew more complicated. Experts differ on how to interpret it.
Maria Kucherenko leads Russian studies at the Ukraine-based Come Back Alive Initiatives Center. She believes that Wagner was created by Russian military intelligence and remains under its control.
For this reason, she views the post-Prigozhin changes in the mercenary corps as largely superficial.
"Only the surnames of the GRU generals in charge have changed," she said.
Other analysts paint a more complex picture of Wagner’s ties with the Russian state. Margolin sees a greater degree of freedom in Wagner’s past activities.
"They acted in the GRU’s interest. They coordinated with the GRU. All of Wagner's operations abroad were supported by logistics that were owned by the Ministry of Defense," he said. "But at the same time, they were still able to determine in this local context exactly what they wanted to do."
John Lechner, a researcher who will publish a book on Wagner in March, believes the mercenary corps’ relationship with the Russian state heavily depended on the country where it was operating.
In Ukraine and Syria, where the mercenaries backed the government of Bashar al-Assad, Wagner actively collaborated with the Russia’s defense ministry. But in sub-Saharan Africa, where the Russian state had a very limited presence, Wagner was able to decide what Russia’s national interests were, Lecher said in an interview.
Wagner wasn’t "just a shadowy arm of the Kremlin pursuing the Kremlin’s interests; they were creating them," he said.
Since Prighzoin’s death, Wagner has undergone significant changes –– although analysts disagree about how fundamental they are.