The deaths due to COVID-19 crossed the 9000 mark recently. There are apprehensions about this reported number by the government. But, what does the data about recorded deaths in India tell us? As of 14June 2020, the total deaths due to COVID-19 in India, as per government sources is 9,195. With a fatality rate of around 2.87%, India is among the countries with a low fatality rate, especially among those worst affected by the pandemic. India has recently crossed more than 50% recovery rate as well. Therefore, in-spite of the increasing number of new cases, it can be concluded that the COVID-19 is not found to be as fatal as it has been observed in few other countries. Few experts opine that nearly 70% of the COVID-19 deaths are due to co-morbidities. Few other think that there is an undercounting of the deaths caused due to COVID-19. Is there a spike in the number of deaths occurring in India due to COVID-19? Or is it relatively similar to regular deaths due co-morbidities every year? The answers are uncertain, especially due to lack of data. In this story, we explore the data around recorded information of deaths in the country and the causes & trends around these deaths. Lack of comprehensive mortality related data in India The major challenge with any analysis relating to mortality in India is the lack of comprehensive information. Not all deaths in India are recorded. There is a provision to record deaths under Medical Certification of Cause of Death (MCCD), introduced under Registration of Births and Deaths (RBD) Act,1969. Under this scheme, the office of Register General, India (ORGI) obtains data on medically certified deaths, collected and compiled by the Offices of Chief Registrars of Births and Deaths of respective States & UTs. However, institutional challenges coupled with lack of awareness means that many deaths go unrecorded. There is also the problem of data availability since government does not regularly publish this data. For analysis in this story, we have considered the annual ‘Report on Medical Certification of Cause of Death’, the latest of which is available only for 2017. We have also considered data from ‘Vital Statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System 2017’ report. Year on year increase in the number of deaths registered A Civil Registration System provides for registration of births and deaths. It is a legal requirement, though in practice it does not take place. Over the years, there is some improvement in the number of deaths being registered. Barring a couple years, there has been a year on year increase in the number of deaths recorded during the 15 year period, 2003 to 2015. In the year 2003, there were around 45.69 lakh recorded deaths which has gradually increased to 64.63 lakhs in 2017. The only occasions when the number of deaths was less than the previous year was in 2004 and 2008. Barring these years, the number of recorded deaths increased on a year-on-year basis. As per the ‘Vital Statistics of India’ report, there is a marked improvement in the number of deaths being recorded vis a vis the estimated number of deaths, which is a good indicator for the quantum of the deaths being recorded. It also needs to be noted that while the number of recorded deaths has increased, the estimates have fallen over the years. This could also be due to improved quality of life and general improvement in health care facilities. The estimated number of deaths in 2017 was around 80 lakh. Increase also observed in the number of Medically Certified Deaths Registering a death is the first step in ensuring the availability of vital information about deaths. Apart from this, identifying the cause of death is another important aspect of registering deaths which would also ensure that comprehensive information is available regarding deaths in the country. As highlighted earlier in the story, RBD ACT 1969, contains provisions for Medical Certification of Cause of Death. Section 10(2) of this act empowers the State governments to enforce the provisions for medical citification of cause of death. Section 10(3) provides for issuing a certificate of cause of death by the medical practitioner who has attended the deceased at the time of death. However, the scheme is limited to certain hospitals and medical centres. As of 2017, only 58,240 medical institutions are covered under MCCD. Therefore, the share of medically certified deaths compared to the total number of registered deaths is quite low. In 2017, there were a total of 14.11 lakh Medically certified deaths, which is only around 22% of the total registered deaths. This is the highest recorded number of medically certified deaths (MCD) in a year till date.
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