Ukraine & Russia together account for close to 90% of India’s Sunflower Oil imports. With a 56% gap between edible oil demand & domestic production, India could feel the pinch with reduced Sunflower Oil imports if the Russia-Ukraine conflict is long drawn. On 24 February 2022, Russia launched a large-scale assault on Ukraine, escalating the existing hostility between the two neighbouring countries. The ongoing military conflict between the two countries has created a wave of uncertainty on various aspects including diplomatic relations, trade, travel etc. In the recent vote called by the United Nations Security Council on Russia’s aggression on Ukraine, India has abstained from the voting. The erstwhile USSR and the successor state of Russia have been key allies of India in many areas. With the conflict raging between these two former Soviet republics, it is bound to have an impact on their trade with India. In this story, we look at the trends in India’s trade with Russia & Ukraine and assess any impact the conflict could have. The data from the Department of Commerce’s Export-Import databank is considered for the story. Trade with Russia has been fluctuating over the years The volume of India’s trade with Russia has increased over the years, largely due to the increased imports. The deficit in trade has been widening over the years, with the increase in the volume of imports and exports to Russia not increasing at the same rate. The data for imports from Russia indicate that there is no definitive trend in the value of imports over the years, with periodic increases followed by a decline. In 2011-12, the value of imports from Russia was USD 4.76 billion, which fell in the following two years, followed by an increasing trend during 2014-18. After a peak of USD 8.57 billion worth of imports in 2017-18, the volume of imports has been fluctuating, increasing in one year followed by a decline in the following year. In 2020-21, the value of imports was USD 5.4 billion but during 2021-22, the value of imports is already around USD 6.89 billion in the first three quarters (April-December 2021). The same can be said about exports to Russia, with an increase in the volume of exports followed by a decline. As noted earlier, the volume of exports is significantly lower than imports and the gap has been widening in general. Increased volume of Petroleum (Crude) imports from Russia The fluctuation in the value of imports over the past few years can be largely attributed to the change in the import volume patterns of certain commodities. In 2020-21, the commodity with the greatest import value from Russia was Petroleum (Crude) at USD 944 million. The same is the case during the first three quarters of 2021-22, with the value of Petroleum (Crude) imports already reaching USD 1.94 billion. The fall in 2020-21, is in line with the overall trend of fall in imports due to the pandemic. Since 2016-17, there is a marked increase in the import of Petroleum (Crude) from Russia. Prior to that, the volume has been much lower. Hence, the overall increase in the value of imports from Russia can be largely attributed to this increase in the import of Petroleum (Crude). However, the import volume of Petroleum (Crude) from Russia is only about 2% of India’s overall import volume of Petroleum (Crude) by value. Unworked Diamond is another commodity with high import volume from Russia. Although Russia still ranks among the top countries from which they are imported, the volume has considerably reduced in recent years. The import value of Unworked diamonds from UAE & Belgium has also largely remained stable. This is largely due to a fall in overall import volumes of this commodity in recent years. The value of imports of other commodities like Unwrought Silver, Potassium Chloride, non-alloyed Nickel, Copper wire, etc. has also reduced. In contrast, import volumes of Sunflower Oil & Unpulverized Coal have increased in recent years. India’s imports of unpulverized coal from Russia account for about 1/5th of the total import of the commodity and rank only next to Australia. In the case of Sunflower Oil, the import volumes from Russia are the second highest with Russian imports accounting for around 1/10 of the total imports. Overall, it can be stated that the import of Petroleum (Crude) dominated the imports from Russia in recent years with a fall in import volumes of most of the other traditional commodities. On the other hand, the exports to Russia constitute only around 1% of India’s total exports. While there have been different products which topped the exports from India in different years, products including “Boneless Bovine Meat”, “Shrimp”, “Tea- Black Leaf”, have been among the major export commodities.