The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.
The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be held no more than five years after the preceding election.
The election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely to occur during minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons.
Depending on the date the election is called, it may potentially be the first contested using a new 343-constituency electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. New electoral boundary sets for each of the ten provinces were finalized between February 14, 2023 and July 8, 2023, and officially proclaimed on September 22, 2023. Any election that occurs on or after April 22, 2024 will use the new boundaries, while any called prior will re-use the 338-seat boundary set presently in force.
Background
The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20 that year, saw little change from the preceding 2019 election. The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, failed to win a parliamentary majority or the popular vote, but remained the party with the most seats and remained in office as a minority government. The Conservatives won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition. On September 27, Annamie Paul resigned as the Green Party leader, which came into effect on November 10.
Electoral redistribution
The Constitution Act, 1867, requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution following each decennial Canadian census. Using the 2021 Canadian census population results, the 2022 redistribution began in October 2021, and was completed in September 2023.
On October 15, 2021, the chief electoral officer announced that based on the procedure in the Constitution Act, 1867 as then in force, the allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats. This included a reduction of Quebec’s allocation from 78 to 77 seats. The government tabled legislation on March 24, 2022, to prevent Quebec (or any other province) from losing any seats relative to the number of seats it was apportioned in 2012 redistribution. Bill C-14 amended rule 2 of subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867, commonly known as the "Grandfather Clause". The bill passed the House of Commons on June 15, the Senate on June 21, and received royal assent on June 23, 2022. The chief electoral officer announced the new allocation of seats on July 8, 2022, which would result in an increase to 343 seats.
Pursuant to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act as amended, ten federal electoral boundary commissions were established, one for each province, on November 1, 2021. The boundary-drawing process commenced upon the release of census data in February 2022. Quebec’s commission adjusted its work to be based on a 78-seat allocation in July 2022. The respective commissions completed their work and finalized new electoral boundary sets on a rolling basis, beginning with the Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island commissions on February 14, 2023, and finishing with the Ontario commission on July 8, 2023. The Chief Electoral Officer then used the final reports of the electoral boundary commissions to formalize a Representation Order, which was proclaimed on September 22, 2023.
The changes to federal electoral district boundaries will take effect at the earliest on April 22, 2024. If the election is called before April 22, 2024, it will occur with the current electoral district boundaries, which have been in effect since the 2015 federal election was called on August 4, 2015.
Parties and standings
The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong was elected as a Liberal, having been disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot, and sits as an independent.