I send you the formula and the calculation on which it is based in an Appendix; but as I know you have a holy horror of algebraical formulae, I give you here a few numerical results.
The cases I have worked out are those in which the number of insects visiting each flower is 5, or 10, or 15; and I have also taken 5, 10, and 15, to represent the number of flowers which an insect visits each journey. This makes nine cases in all; and I have applied these to two instances--viz. one in which one-fifth of the whole race have developed cross-infertility, and the other in which one-tenth only have done so. Taking first the instance where one-fifth have developed the peculiarity, I find that if on the average five insects visit a flower, and each insect on the average visits five flowers on a journey, the fertility is diminished by about one-tenth. If, however, the average number of flowers the insect visits is ten, the reduction of fertility is less than one per cent. And it becomes inappreciable if the average number is fifteen. If on the average ten insects visit each flower, then, if each insect visits on the average five flowers on a journey, the reduction of fertility is a little over one per cent.; but if it visits ten or fifteen the reduction is inappreciable. If fifteen insects visit the flower on an average, then, if these insects on the average visit five or more flowers on a journey, the reduction of fertility is inappreciable.
By the term inappreciable I mean that it is not substantially greater than one-tenth of one per cent.--i.e. not more than one-thousandth.
Of course, if the proportion of individuals acquiring the peculiarity is less, the effect on the fertility under the above hypothesis will be greater; and it will not be counteracted so fully unless the number of insect visits is larger, or unless the insects visit more flowers on a journey. Thus if only one-tenth of the race have developed the peculiarity, then, if each flower is visited on the average by five insects who visit five flowers on each trip, the fertility will be reduced about one-third. If, however, the insects visit on the average ten flowers per trip, it will be only diminished about one-tenth; and if they visit fifteen on each trip, it will be only diminished about one-fortieth. If in the same case we suppose that each flower receives ten insect visits, then, if the insects visit on an average five flowers per trip, the fertility will be diminished about one-eighth. If they visit ten on a trip, it will be diminished about one-hundredth, and the diminution is inappreciable if they visit fifteen on a trip. Similarly, if a flower receives fifteen insect visits, the diminution is about one-twenty-fifth, if insects visit on the average five flowers on a trip; and is inappreciable if they visit ten or fifteen.